Pacers-Thunder Game 7 showdown: Everything you need to know

Jun 22, 2025, 08:00 AM ET

Game 7s are the moments where legends are made.

These are the games — with little margin for error and everything on the line — that go down in the annals of history, particularly at this stage of the playoffs when they are rare. Since the NBA-ABA merger at the start of the 1976-77 season, there have been only eight winner-take-all games to decide the NBA title.

Sunday night will see that number grow to nine, when the host Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers square off in Game 7 of the NBA Finals — the first time that the league’s championship round has gone the distance since 2016. That game is, at a minimum, on the short list for the greatest game in the history of the sport, with LeBron James leading the Cleveland Cavaliers back from a 3-1 deficit in the best-of-7 series to dethrone the 73-win Golden State Warriors on their home floor.

The Thunder have been waiting for their first title since they left Seattle for Oklahoma City 17 years ago. The franchise has left the SuperSonics’ history in the past. Still, after several near-misses — including an NBA Finals trip in 2012 and conference finals appearances in 2014 and 2016 — Oklahoma City had the seventh-most wins in NBA history (68) this season. It will be the fifth-best team, in terms of wins, in the history of the sport if the Thunder can claim this year’s title.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, meanwhile, would put himself in rarified air if he’s able to win a championship after winning the scoring title and the league’s regular-season MVP award — something only Shaquille O’Neal, Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar have done.

This is a moment the Thunder were expected to be in all season. The same cannot be said for their opponents, however, as a win for Indiana will cap what has to be one of the most unexpected runs to a championship in the NBA. The Pacers have completed one historic comeback in each of the four rounds of the playoffs, including star guard Tyrese Haliburton completing an unparalleled run of clutch shotmaking to go along with Indiana’s penchant for wearing down its opponents.

Coach Rick Carlisle, who led a similarly constructed Dallas Mavericks team to a title against a massive favorite in the James-led Miami Heat in 2011, has already won seven games in the Finals as an underdog, the most in NBA history.

Indiana would also earn its first NBA championship after making the Finals with Reggie Miller leading the way 25 years ago. It won a couple of ABA championships behind Hall of Famers Mel Daniels and Roger Brown in the 1970s.

The Pacers and Thunder will sit 48 minutes away from immortality when they take the court Sunday night. Only one thing is for certain: Whatever happens, the game will never be forgotten. — Tim Bontemps

MORE: Schedule and news | Offseason guide

The biggest keys for the Thunder: Home-court advantage

Give the home crowd a reason to stay loud. The Thunder earned the right to host the most important game of the season by rolling to 68 wins and the best record in the league. The Paycom Center has been an awfully tough place for opponents to play this postseason.

The Thunder are 10-2 at home with nine double-digit wins, including victories by 30- and 32-point margins in elimination games the past two rounds.

The fans in Oklahoma City — a small market with only one big-league franchise — provide a true home-court advantage that Jalen Williams has compared to a high school football powerhouse, the kind of program that an entire town revolves around. The stands will be packed with folks wearing the same T-shirts by the time the layup lines begin. They’ll be loud, providing the Thunder “the wind behind our backs,” as coach Mark Daigneault puts it. — Tim MacMahon

The biggest keys for the Pacers: Controlled chaos

Limit turnovers and control the pace. It’s easier said than done against a defense as swarming as the Thunder’s, but the Pacers have been at their best when they’ve managed to win the turnover battle and stop Oklahoma City from getting out in transition.

The results are twofold. Not turning the ball over allows the Pacers to attempt more field goals instead of coming away with empty possessions and it stops the Thunder from getting easy transition baskets, which makes their offense thrive.

The Pacers want a chaotic game controlled in their favor, similar to Game 6, when Indiana was the team flying around the floor while Oklahoma City got stagnant trying to run an offense in the half court repeatedly. — Jamal Collier

Players who will swing Game 7

Oklahoma City Thunder

Alex Caruso is the only proven NBA champion on the Thunder’s roster, the veteran leader of this team and a player who was a dominant force in Oklahoma City’s previous Game 7 win against the Denver Nuggets.

Caruso wreaked havoc as the primary defender against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic that afternoon, a major factor in the 23 turnovers that the Thunder converted into 37 points. He was a plus-40 in 26 minutes.

He’s one of the toughest competitors in the NBA, a guy who lives for this type of highest-stakes situation. Caruso has had his fingerprints all over Oklahoma City’s playoff run so far. Count on that continuing in Game 7. — MacMahon

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers’ depth has been their strength throughout this playoff run and T.J. McConnell has stepped up with a fantastic performance in this series. His high-energy style for 19 minutes per game has provided a spark in each contest he checks into, and he’s averaging 11.3 points and 4.5 assists in the series on 54% shooting.

Haliburton played through a calf injury in a high-stakes Game 6 and was effective, but not as mobile as usual, which means the Pacers are going to need a variety of ball handlers to help keep their pace and run their offense.

McConnell almost certainly won’t win the Finals MVP with the efforts of Haliburton and Pascal Siakam coming up big for Indiana all series, but the way McConnell and the bench unit have energized the team — and outplayed their reserve counterparts from OKC — is a major reason the Pacers have an opportunity to win this series. — Collier

If the Thunder win Game 7, we’ll remember their title as _____.

Crossing the finish line for a historic season — and taking the first step in a potential dynastic run.

Oklahoma City profiles statistically as one of the most dominant teams of all time with the best regular-season point differential ever. The only champion to finish the season with more total wins than the Thunder’s 84, if Oklahoma City finishes the job, was the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

Oklahoma City is in this position with almost its entire core consisting of ascending talent.

Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP who is just entering his prime. Williams is an All-NBA sidekick still in the relatively early stages of his development, as is Chet Holmgren, who has All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year potential.

GM Sam Presti still has an unprecedented treasure chest of first-round draft picks to utilize to continue adding talent and perhaps eventually replace some core players if difficult payroll decisions result in departures.

This should be the first of many Junes when the Thunder is the focus of the basketball world. — MacMahon

Hibbert: Title would solidify Haliburton as a Pacers great

Roy Hibbert says Tyrese Haliburton’s legacy in Indiana would be cemented with a championship ring.

If the Pacers win Game 7, we’ll remember their title as _____.

The biggest upset in NBA history.

Indiana entered the playoffs as a No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. Its run through the East was filled with buzzer-beaters and thrilling comebacks as the Pacers defied the odds, and they still began the Finals facing the longest odds of a team in 20 years in the championship series.

They will not be the favorites in any of the seven games in this series, but it all sets Indiana up on the doorstep of one of the most unlikely championships in league history.

The Pacers don’t profile like a usual championship contender, but they’ve spent the playoffs disproving any notion that they are not. — Collier

The matchups and adjustments that will decide the champ

Historic home-court advantage

In 12 playoff games at the Paycom Center, the Thunder have a plus-20.6-point differential, which is the second-largest margin of victory in home-court playoff history (minimum 5 games played), behind the 1995-96 Utah Jazz’s plus-20.7.

Oklahoma City’s only playoff losses at home were in Game 1 against Indiana and Game 1 against the Nuggets, and they led in both of those contests until the final seconds.

The occasional shooting woes that have plagued Oklahoma City in the playoffs haven’t been an issue at home. The Thunder have made just 29.9% of their 3-point attempts on the road in the playoffs, vastly underperforming their expected mark of 36.5%, according to GeniusIQ. But at home, they’ve made 37.5% of their 3s, a perfect match for their 37.5% expected 3-point mark.

Other than Williams, every member of the Thunder’s rotation has shot better from distance at home. — Zach Kram

An unfamiliar low-scoring game

Don’t expect a lot of points Sunday because, historically, Game 7s in the Finals have been low-scoring affairs. The past five ended 93-89, 95-88, 83-79, 81-74 and 90-84, respectively. Not since 1988, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Detroit Pistons 108-105, has a team reached triple digits in a Finals Game 7.

It’s unclear which team that sort of game will favor because neither has played many like it all postseason. The Pacers haven’t won a playoff game with fewer than 108 points, but they just turned in their best defensive effort of the postseason, allowing only 91 points in Game 6.

The Thunder, meanwhile, are just 1-6 in the playoffs when they’ve scored 110 points or fewer. But OKC does have one low-scoring win — 92-87 in Game 4 against the Nuggets — and should be more accustomed to grind-it-out games.

The Thunder have held their opponents below 100 points six times in the playoffs, five of them at home. But Oklahoma City hasn’t done so once against Indiana in the Finals. — Kram

The turnover battle

The 2025 playoffs have been defined by turnovers. Overall, teams that commit fewer turnovers than their opponents have a record of 58-21 (.734). Given Oklahoma City led the league in avoiding turnovers and forced the second most on a per-possession basis, the Thunder both drove and benefited from that trend. Against Western Conference opponents, Oklahoma City won the turnover battle in 14 of 16 games.

But Indiana has been able to flip the script in the Finals.

After stealing Game 1 despite 25 giveaways, the Pacers had the turnover edge in their Game 3 and Game 6 wins and played the Thunder to a draw in Game 4. Thursday was the biggest outlier. Oklahoma City’s 10-turnover deficit was twice as big as in any other playoff game.

Rare Saturday edition of The F5:

– Charting the location of liveball turnovers in the Finals
– Q&A with @MiikeDLR about what makes a good Thinking Basketball video https://t.co/YlJOkAUagR pic.twitter.com/GQ3u5JvJvJ

— Owen Phillips (@owenlhjphillips) June 21, 2025

McConnell’s ability to turn routine efforts to bring the ball up into costly steals has been a key factor in Indiana doing to the Thunder what Oklahoma City has done to teams all season. Owen Phillips of the F5 Newsletter noted Saturday that the Thunder have committed 10 turnovers in this series before getting the ball past the 3-point line, as compared to just one for the Pacers.

As for the importance of home court for Game 7, however, Indiana has averaged 21 turnovers in three games at Paycom Center, as compared to 13.7 in three home games. If that split continues, the Pacers will face an uphill battle Sunday. — Kevin Pelton

MVP contenders

If Oklahoma City manages to win Game 7 and claim the championship, the only realistic option on the Thunder is an obvious one: the league’s regular-season MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander (minus-225).

Williams (plus-1300) has had some great moments in this series, including his 40-point explosion in Game 5, but it isn’t close enough to seriously tip the scales away from SGA in the event OKC is victorious.

Gilgeous-Alexander has the iconic sequence in the series to date with his fourth-quarter closeout in Game 4, and his stats across the board are superior.

If the Pacers win, however, the race is wide-open — and very likely will come down to how Game 7 itself plays out, and who has the biggest impact. The most likely scenario is that it will, like in the Eastern Conference finals, come down to a choice between the two Indiana stars, Haliburton (plus-1500) and Siakam (plus-300).

Haliburton, playing through a calf strain, has led the team in assists and had the game-winning bucket in Game 1 and a stellar performance in Game 3. Siakam, on the other hand, is leading the Pacers in points and rebounds, while averaging four assists and over a steal and a block.

The one true wild-card selection, depending on how he plays in a Pacers victory, is reserve guard McConnell (plus-10,000), who has had a fabulous series. It’s unlikely he will win the award, given that Siakam and/or Haliburton are all but assured of a big game if Indiana wins, but McConnell has had a big impact throughout the series as the leader of the Pacers’ second unit. — Bontemps

History of Game 7

From ESPN Research

This is the 20th Game 7 in the NBA Finals in league history.
It is the first Game 7 in the Finals since 2016, when the Cavaliers defeated the Warriors to complete the only 3-1 comeback in Finals history.
Home teams are 15-4 in Game 7 of the Finals.
Each of the past eight Game 7s in the NBA Finals have been decided by single digits and 15 of the 19 Game 7s in the NBA Finals have been decided by single digits.
The average margin of victory in Game 7 of the NBA Finals is 6.9 points, the smallest margin among all Finals games.

The underdogs:

Since seeding began in 1984, only one team seeded fourth or lower won the NBA title. It was the 1995 Houston Rockets, who were a 6-seed.
The Pacers won 18 fewer games than the Thunder in the regular season. That would be the largest upset in terms of regular-season wins in an NBA Finals in league history.
The Pacers had a PPG differential 10.6 points lower than the Thunder. That would be the largest upset in terms of PPG differential in an NBA Finals in league history.
The Pacers have 10 wins as an underdog this postseason, tied for the most by any team in a single postseason in the past 35 seasons.

Best bets

Andrew Nembhard over 14.5 total points and assists (-120). While Haliburton was able to play well Thursday, he is still dealing with a calf strain and might be limited. Nembhard took on a larger role in Game 6, notching a series-high 17 points with four assists (21 P+A), and I expect him to be called upon again in Game 7.

Nembhard averaged 12.5 points and 5.0 assists (17.5 P+A) in the first two games of the series, both in Oklahoma City, and the Pacers will likely need him to at least match those numbers in Game 7. — Andre Snellings

Jalen Williams over 22.5 total points (-125). Williams was in his scoring bag going into Game 6, averaging 31.0 points with at least 26 in each of the prior three contests. He got off to a strong scoring start in Game 6 with 16 points in the first half before the team got blown out in the third quarter. I look for Williams to bounce back in Game 7, playing at home, and generate another high-scoring effort. — Snellings

More bets for Game 7

Game 7 expert picks

Zach Kram: Thunder

Kevin Pelton: Thunder

Andre Snellings: Thunder

Ohm Youngmisuk: Thunder

Chris Herring: Thunder

Marc Spears: Thunder

Jeremy Woo: Pacers

Neil Paine: Thunder

Final tally:
Thunder 7, Pacers 1

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