The midway point of the Champions League phase is upon us, and already the pressure is beginning to build on some of the biggest clubs in Europe. For some — the likes of Bayern Munich, Inter and Manchester City — the coming days will be about scrabbling back up the table and establishing a grip on one of the coveted top eight berths.
Altogether more significant are those teams who might have to legitimately worry about whether they can reach the top 24. On current form Manchester United are certainly among them, and their home game against Roma threatens to be critical for the club’s Champions League prospects. Perhaps the future of their manager too.
How long can Carrick last?
A little over a week ago it seemed only logical to log the remainder of Michael Carrick’s time as Manchester United manager in hours. Back-to-back defeats to Como and Bournemouth, each by a three-goal margin, had the club hovering around the drop zone in both the Premier League and Champions League standings. Club captain Bruno Fernandes had openly questioned Carrick’s tactics, fostering a greater sense of mutiny in the aftermath of center back Lisandro Martinez turning both barrels on those in charge of appointing the manager and signing players.
Remarkably, Carrick endured, part-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe and the rest of the hierarchy concluding that the manager, who had led United to third last season, deserved time to right this listing ship. In many ways, events on Saturday vindicated that assessment. At Stamford Bridge the Red Devils had much the better of the first half, a coiled spring ready to blitz Chelsea on the counter. The only slight problem, one obviously out of Carrick’s control, was that they did not put the ball in the net. Then the United midfield whooshed open like the doors of the Starship Enterprise to let Morgan Rogers score the opener, and everything adequate was undone in a 14-minute, Lisandro Martinez-authored head loss.
CBS Sports
You can’t really hold the manager responsible for that, not when so many coaches have tried and failed to quell United’s appetite for self-destruction. Then again, it’s not like you can sack the players midway through the season. If the situation gets perilous, there’s not much you can do but start afresh in the dugout and hope against reason that Eddie Howe (or whoever else) can get through to this squad in a way his predecessors couldn’t.
Right now you’d doubt that Manchester United are on the cusp of existential peril — relegation to the Championship seems a long shot — but they are at risk of being a few million worse off from their European campaign. Lose at home to Roma and they would have three points with half the league phase played. Still to play: Sporting and Villarreal away, RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich at home. That makes for a critical occasion against Roma, whose free-scoring attack must have been licking their lips on Saturday lunchtime. This has the makings of a brutal ending to a tenure that started with such promise.
Carrick sees things differently. “Perception is a funny thing,” he said on Monday, insisting he does not feel like a coach with two games left to save his job. “You can make things look different ways and think about all sorts of different things. The commitment of the players to the club, to me, to each other – do not question at all. We need to play better, we can make better decisions, but the commitment is not a thing at all.”
And yet, much as Carrick’s perception of the group might quickly change, so could the game’s view of why the United hierarchy stood by its man a week ago. Was the manager afforded faith for the long-term job or did his employers just conclude there was no sense in rushing a change ahead of a tricky three-game run before the international break? Fail to beat Roma and Aston Villa and we will surely find out.
Do Inter need an attitude shift?
Even in the aftermath of a derby defeat on Halloween night, it did not seem there was much cause for doom and gloom among the Inter ranks. A three-point deficit to league leaders Lazio is surely retrievable for the defending champions, and while they have only three points from their first three games, winning a man down against Shakhtar Donetsk eased any lingering sense of crisis about Champions League progression.
And yet the mood music emanating from the blue-and-black half of the San Siro paints a far more worrying picture. Head coach Cristian Chivu questioned the “approach and determination” of his side, senior center back Alessandro Bastoni spoke of an “inadequate” mentality and Nicolo Barella was the most damning of the lot. “We haven’t had the right attitude since the start of the season, and it’s a negative thing,” he said, framing his side’s struggles as being against tiredness as much as their opponents.
All of which might be something of an overreaction to Milan scoring three goals from five shots worth 0.57 expected goals in the first half at the weekend. Are there deep-seated problems with Inter or is this a team missing a host of senior players, among them Lautaro Martinez, whose absence at the weekend prompted Chivu to unsuccessfully experiment with Marcus Thuram as a lone striker?
CBS Sports
Martinez will be missing for the trip to Feyenoord, but even without the captain, Bastoni, John Stones and Curtis Jones, there is the requisite quality in the Inter ranks to win well in Rotterdam (particularly if Chivu brings Federico Dimarco back into the XI). Whatever their attitude might be, it has not stopped them running up a supremely impressive 2.5 non-penalty expected goals per game. As for Europe, it would not have taken that many bounces going in a different direction for this team to have seven-plus points and be thinking about a return to the last 16. Without wishing to go too Leslie Nielsen about this, there really is nothing to see here.
Equally, when your players and coaches start talking in such apocalyptic terms, it is much more likely to bring on, well, the apocalypse. Or at least its Champions League league phase equivalent of an unseeded berth in the knockout playoffs/punishment round. That and some dropped points against Como and Atalanta.
Can Kane elevate injury-riddled Bayern?
Last time out we suggested that Arsenal’s depth might hold the key against Bayern Munich late on and, like the stopped clock this column is, we were vindicated as Viktor Gyokeres turned provider for Declan Rice’s late winner. Ultimately in the closing stages all Vincent Kompany had to turn to off the bench to aid his attack was a banged-up Luis Diaz and a faltering youngster in Lennart Karl. A fortnight later, even that would be an upgrade on the situation Bayern find themselves in as they travel to Madrid.
Saturday’s 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund came at the cost of Ismael Saibari and Serge Gnabry, both of whom will be missing for some time yet. Jamal Musiala is also on the sidelines with a thigh injury and Diaz has only just returned to the field as he steps up his recovery from a hamstring injury. The best-case scenario for Bayern is that Michael Olise, who also exited early at the weekend, is able to play in some capacity, but director of sport Max Eberl described the Frenchman’s situation as “day to day”.
If Olise is not fit, it may be that the three attacking midfielders are Karl and two left backs, Alphonso Davies and Nathan Brown. It would take quite the center forward to knit all that together. A Ballon d’Or winner. Harry Kane’s headline contribution to Der Klassiker might have been the missed penalty at 1-0, but the No. 9 ended this game with an assist for Dayot Upamecano and 0.43 expected assists total. Remarkably for a center forward, that was not even that far ahead of his season average of 0.32. That’s 97th percentile for creation. It will not surprise you to know he ranks in the 99th percentile for shots and xG.
As Arsenal discovered to their cost in the last round of Champions League games, you can take away Kane’s shooting chances, you can even take away his elite supporting cast, but he might still find a way to lay one on a plate for a teammate.