Coming off a 2024 season of major breakthroughs — from 27-year-old Taylor Fritz cracking the top five to 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva breaking into the top 20 — the big question for 2025 is whether these rising stars can reach the most prestigious winners’ circles.
The catch, of course, is that Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have won the last 10 men’s Grand Slams, the last three ATP Finals and half of the Masters 1000 titles in the last two years, while Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff have captured eight of the last 11 women’s Slams, the last two WTA Finals and 10 of the last 16 WTA 1000 titles.
“And it’s not like they’re going anywhere,” said Mary Joe Fernández, an ESPN analyst. Sinner is just 23 and Alcaraz is 21; while Sabalenka is 26, Swiatek is just 23 and Gauff is merely 20.
“Players are knocking on the door and there is a tremendous excitement, but there are some question marks, too,” said Tracy Austin, a Tennis Channel analyst. “And now the question is whether they’ll be overwhelmed by the expectations.”
Just a few years ago, those expectations were bestowed on Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev, said Patrick McEnroe, an ESPN analyst, but Medvedev is the only one of the three to have won a Slam — the U.S. Open in 2021 — and Tsitsipas has fallen from the top 10.
Paul Annacone, a Tennis Channel analyst, said he did not believe Sinner and Alcaraz were as elevated above the pack as Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal were. “I would not be shocked if an outsider won a major this year.”
Annacone works with Fritz, who reached the U.S. Open final in 2024 and cracked the top five. Annacone and McEnroe said Fritz was the most likely to succeed this year. In the semifinals and finals, winning comes down to “the mental side and how well you manage the moment, and Taylor plays so well in the big moments,” Annacone said.
McEnroe, however, believes Alcaraz and Sinner are generational talents. He called Fritz “an amazing competitor,” but did not foresee him winning a Slam this year. (If Sinner, whose doping case is being appealed, gets suspended, that changes the entire equation.)
As for Alex de Minaur, 25, who is ranked ninth in the world, McEnroe called him a “less precise and not as flexible” version of the sixth-ranked Casper Ruud, 26, saying he was more likely to slide down the rankings.
His standing is endangered by Jack Draper, 23, Lorenzo Musetti, 22, and Arthur Fils, 20, who all breached the top 20 last year.
“Draper is getting stronger, and if he’s healthy he has the most upside with his firepower and movement,” McEnroe said. “Fils is an explosive player from all over the court with that moxie you like in a young player. The question is whether he can be consistent enough.”
They’re reminiscent of Ben Shelton, whose skills, athleticism and flair thrust him into the top 20 and the U.S. Open semifinals at age 20 in 2023; he stalled last year because, McEnroe said, he remains inconsistent. “He needs to play more solid, predictable tennis.”
Annacone sees top 10 futures for these players, but Fils of France and Draper of England face an extra challenge as rising stars in countries that host Grand Slams and are desperate for a homegrown hero.
“They’ll be in a fishbowl now, and the expectations are going to be exponentially different,” he explained.
But the top 10 is far from the tippy top. “If I had to bet, I’d say none of them will win a Grand Slam,” McEnroe said. He puts his money on Joao Fonseca, an 18-year-old Brazilian who has yet to break the top 100, but who McEnroe said brims with potential.
The women are more likely to have a new champion. At 29, Jasmine Paolini soared from 30th to fourth last year, winning a WTA 1000 and reaching two Grand Slam finals.
“When she was younger she may not have thought she could win a major, but now she has the confidence,” Austin said. “But we’ll see if she can play against the biggest hitters week in and week out.”
Fernández said Paolini’s improved fitness might not enable her to displace the three women above her. While Paolini excels at capitalizing on opportunities, Fernández said her best was not equal to those of Sabalenka, Swiatek or Gauff.
Austin said that Qinwen Zheng, who won Olympic gold in 2024 and finished the year ranked fifth, held the most immediate promise.
“Since the Olympics she’s playing with more freedom,” Austin said. “She has such a big serve and, with last year’s experience, she can be a huge factor.”
Fernández said that Zheng, 22, also has a heavier topspin forehand than most women, giving her another weapon. “I have no question she can threaten the top three.”
Austin said Emma Navarro, 23, who jumped from 38th to eighth in 2024, has improved her movement and blends deep balls with deft drop shots. Fernández added that Navarro had handled the jump from college to low-level tournaments to the Grand Slams smoothly. “What stands out is how calm she is,” Fernández said. “There’s no fluctuation in her emotions.”
Austin also said she believed Diana Shnaider, 20, who went from 60th to 12th in the world, should reach the top 10. “She hits big on the run and has good feel,” Austin said. “And she’s a lefty, which is a huge plus.”
Even more impressive is the 16th-ranked Andreeva. Beyond her talent, Fernández praised the addition of Conchita Martínez as Andreeva’s coach.
“Conchita has helped keeping her calm, making her less reactive,” Fernández said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Andreeva did something special in 2025.”
Still, obstacles remain for young talent. “The element of surprise is gone, and people are learning your game,” Fernández said.
Austin added that success brought media attention and endorsement opportunities, which are distractions: “You have to learn to manage your tennis game and then do the same with all the off-court stuff, too.”