Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) holds a 10-point lead over Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the state’s governor’s race, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released on Thursday.
When asked who they would vote for if Election Day were tomorrow, 52 percent of likely voters in the poll said they would back Spanberger, while 42 percent said they would vote for Earle-Sears. Six percent said they were undecided.
The poll, which was conducted Sept. 28-29, comes after early voting in the state kicked off on Sept. 19. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, 146,223 ballots were cast in the first week of early voting.
The survey also showed Spanberger leading voters who said they already cast their ballot 60 percent to 38 percent. The former congresswoman also led with likely voters who have not yet voted 50 percent to 43 percent.
Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball noted that Spanberger has seen increases in support from Independent voters, males, and younger voters.
“Independent voters support Spanberger by a 19-point margin; a reversal from January, when they supported Earle-Sears by four points. Notably, the male vote, which traditionally favors the Republican candidate, shifted from a 15-point advantage for Earle-Sears to an even split, with 46 percent supporting each candidate,” Kimball said.
“Spanberger’s support also increased among voters under 50: what was once a narrow 41 percent to 39 percent edge has grown into a 27-point lead, 59 percent to 32 percent,” he continued. “Meanwhile, Earle-Sears has not consolidated support among older voters; in January, those 50 and older were evenly divided, 43 percent for Spanberger and 42 percent for Earle-Sears. Nine months later, the group remains split with 49 percent for Earle-Sears and 47 percent for Spanberger.”
The findings are consistent with the polling average from The Hill’s partners at Decision Desk HQ, which shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 50.1 percent to 43.1 percent.
The overall sample of Virginia likely voters in the Emerson College/The Hill poll was 725. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.