There is always a point when simply being at a World Cup is no longer enough, whoever you are and whoever you play for. The thrill of qualifying was real for Scotland – they haven’t been at this party since 1998 after all – but some things never change in sport and one of them is that defeat still feels like failure.
This is where Scotland stand now. On that knife-edge between real achievement and numbing disappointment. To go home at the first juncture after opening the tournament with a victory over Haiti would feel wrong somehow. That is why Steve Clarke and his players will travel to Miami for a meeting with Brazil feeling that they have in their hands something they really must not let go.
Last December’s tournament draw in Washington threw the teams together in competition for the first time since they opened France ’98 in Paris. Brazil won that one 2-1. This time, Scotland know that a draw would in all likelihood see them into the last 32. A narrow defeat like that one in the French capital may also be enough.
That must be a strange feeling but that is what this World Cup has delivered us through a format that sends only sixteen of 48 teams home after the group phase.
Scotland may be able to lose narrowly but not heavily. It’s Clarke’s job to try and get all that straight in his players’ heads before a meeting with the most recognisable nation in World Cup history.
What is more simple to understand is that Scotland must play rather better than they did against Morocco in Boston’s fabulous Gillette Stadium.
Scott McTominay and Scotland’s World Cup hopes are on a knife edge after the defeat
They cannot be timid and meek and chaotic and disorganised like they were for the opening half hour. They must not play again like second class citizens or like World Cup guests just waiting to be sent home.
No, Scotland must play with some belief and some energy and some certainty like they did for the final 20 minutes in Massachusetts on Friday night. Their football at the death threatened to bring them an equaliser.
Scotland are heavy underdogs not only against Brazil but in the wider picture of this tournament. It pays to remember how they qualified.
They were largely dominated by Denmark in that stunning and decisive victory at Hampden Park last November. Clarke’s team had 30 per cent of the ball and five shots on target. Four of them went in and three will be remembered as among the greatest goals ever scored by a player in dark blue.
It was wonderful and exhilarating and uplifting. But it was also freakish, something of a fluke. If the game was to played another 99 times in the same pattern, the Danes would win every time.
So it’s a gift that Scotland are even here. Their supporters have left their mark over a week in Boston and it has been in all the right ways. This wonderfully confident and intelligent city has been dressed in summer tartan and frankly it’s been a picture. It was just a shame that Scotland’s football for the first hour against Morocco lacked any such swagger.
So how does Clarke approach the game against Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil? He was still doing media duties as the South Americans tore Haiti apart in a riotous first half in Philadelphia on Friday and it’s probably just as well. Brazil’s football would have kept him awake.
Against Morocco – who today sit 6th in FIFA’s rankings and 35 places above his own team – he stands accused of being a little over-cautious at the start, of picking a team not to lose rather than to win. He arguably doesn’t have good enough players to do that.]
Scotland will view Casemiro as a potential area of weakness for Brazil next week
Scotland didn’t so much draw the AFCON champions on to them in the early stages but open the back door and stand aside.
In Florida against Brazil they must find a way to be more assertive, because they won’t get away with such compliance again. Scotland have fashioned only two shots on target in two games and one of them went in against Haiti, via two deflections.
Clarke himself tried to set the right tone late on Friday evening when he said: ‘We want to win the game and if we don’t win the game, we don’t want to lose it. We take on another side from the world’s top ten.’
Reasons for hope come in several forms. Brazil are capricious and emotional and have clear weaknesses.
Despite their disposal of Haiti on Friday, they were vulnerable in the centre of midfield against Morocco six days earlier.
Casemiro, at 34, has started both games and such has been his ponderous football that Scotland’s Scott McTominay – once a Manchester United team-mate of the great but ageing Brazilian – should look forward to winning that contest.
Against Morocco, McTominay imposed himself late in the game by playing further upfield. He is Scotland’s best player by a distance and such has been his improvement since joining Napoli that Casemiro may struggle to recognise him.
Ben Doak must start against Brazil – his speed and directness will cause them problems
Substitute Ben Gannon Doak also carried a threat against the north Africans. He is impish and direct and Clarke must start him against Brazil.
In some ways, it’s a free hit for Scotland. They have exceeded expectations by even being here in America. They have already won a game and as such have made some memories to erase some of those scars left by an inept showing at the 2024 European Championships.
The trouble with victories, though, is that they breed hope and even expectation. Scotland travelled west a fortnight ago hoping to still be in the mix come game three against Vinicius Junior and his friends.
They have achieved that. So why is it that qualification for phase two now feels like the only palatable outcome?