Projecting massive contract extensions for Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs

Amid a near-total teardown and early-stage rebuild of their roster this offseason, the Dolphins ensured at least one of their cornerstones isn’t going anywhere by agreeing to a four-year, $64 million extension with De’Von Achane last week, per CBS Sports lead NFL insider Jonathan Jones.

It was a “put your money where your mouth is” situation. The Dolphins had already traded away both Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) and Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) by the time new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan said unequivocally last month Achane wasn’t available for trade. Now, Achane has one of the largest contracts at his position.

The electrifying 24-year-old registered 1,838 yards from scrimmage last year, sixth in the NFL. His 5.7 yards per carry and 13.4% explosive rush rate were both highest in the league, too. Despite standing just 5-foot-9 and weighing just 191 pounds, Achane played in 16 games last year and recorded a career-high 304 touches, including a team-high 67 catches. The year before, he played in all 17 games and had 281 touches, including 78 catches, showing he’s much more than the position name “running back” suggests.

He’s not alone in that designation, even in his own draft. The 2023 class as a whole, like all classes, had notable busts and notable hits, like Achane, who was a third-round selection. But the running back crop has been excellent, with first-rounders Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs ascending to superstar status, Achane on the precipice and fifth-rounder Chase Brown coming off his best season.

Achane’s extension brings the focus squarely on what Robinson and Gibbs could fetch this offseason. Because they were first-round picks, they have a fifth-year option on the contract, and the Falcons and Lions, respectively, exercised those options.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter has said that a Robinson extension should be coming this offseason. Two stars of Robinson’s caliber in the 2023 draft class — Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) have gotten record-setting extensions already, in fact.

Things are a bit more complicated in Gibbs’ situation given the team’s tight finances, ESPN’s Eric Woodyard wrote in February. Gibbs is tied to Detroit for the next two seasons, but a second contract might not come this offseason. After all, the Lions decided against exercising All-Pro linebacker Jack Campbell’s fifth-year option due to the looming cap realities.

Why Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs will get big extensions

The counting numbers make it easy to see why the Falcons and Lions would want to keep Robinson and Gibbs, respectively.

That last line is crucial. In recent years, NFL defenses have focused on taking away big plays downfield. That makes players who can turn a short gain into a big one even more valuable. Robinson and Gibbs fit that description to a T. Over the past two years, Robinson has 202 tackles avoided, by far the most in the NFL. Gibbs is second with 162. Only one other player, Kenneth Walker III (who, not coincidentally, also got a nice pay day this offseason), is over 150.

It’s not just volume, either. Gibbs is tied with Achane for the highest explosive play rate in the NFL over the last two seasons; Robinson is ninth.

Age is also on their sides. Robinson and Gibbs are both 24, and neither turns 25 until after the upcoming season. The NFL is obsessed with every data point, and especially age when it comes to running backs. Other top-paid running backs, such as Barkley, McCaffrey and Derrick Henry, were older when they signed their most recent contracts. This offseason, Achane and Breece Hall both got significant extensions in which their age was an advantage.

What do Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs extensions look like, and when will they happen?

Robinson seems more likely to get an extension soon, based on factors outlined previously. Also, Robinson is one of a few Falcons clearly worthy of a major extension currently. The Lions have not only Gibbs, but also Campbell, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch to consider extending from their 2023 draft class, and they’d need to move some significant future money around.

Here’s the current top of the running back market:

It’s worth noting that it’s unclear how either Robinson or Gibbs or their representations value different aspects of negotiations, such as timeliness, total value, per-year value and guaranteed money.

Robinson could — and perhaps should — reset all three major categories. A three-year $75 million deal with about $45 guaranteed would do just that. In fact, it would blow away all three current records for the position. The three-year length makes more sense considering Robinson is already tied to his team through 2027 (unlike Achane, who was only tied to Miami through 2026).

If $25 million per year seems like a lot, it’s worth noting it’s, on average annual value, exactly what DeVonta Smith makes. Yes, running backs have always lagged well behind wide receivers, but Robinson is much more than a typical running back, and at his age, he should factor in heavily to whatever Atlanta hopes it is building over the next half-decade, if not longer. Atlanta has a new front office that would make a strong early statement by investing long-term in a young superstar — not unlike Achane, but also at a higher level, financially.

Should Robinson sign his extension this offseason, Detroit would be on the clock with Gibbs. Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have emphasized rewarding their homegrown talent and backed that up with many recent extensions. With Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell, it happened early in the 2024 offseason.

But with Alim McNeill, it happened during the 2024 season. With Jameson Williams and Aidan Hutchinson, it happened during the 2025 season — Williams right at the start, Hutchinson midseason.

We can envision similar timing for Gibbs, especially as the Lions wade through precarious cap waters. Gibbs tops Robinson in terms of total money and guaranteed money, but on a four-year extension, so the per-year money isn’t a record setter. The extra year could give Detroit some flexibility in the contract’s structure.

Projected Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs extension

Robinson:

• Three-year, $75 million extension with $45 guaranteed
• Signed in July 2026
• Sets RB record in total value, average annual value, guaranteed money

Gibbs:

• Four-year, $84 million extension with $46 million guaranteed
• Signed in September/October 2026
• Sets RB record in total value, guaranteed money