Anthony Albanese‘s attempts to compare Opposition Leader Peter Dutton to the US President Donald Trump are a deliberate tactic designed to frighten voters out of switching support to the Coalition at the election.
It is a clever move on a number of levels. Even if it went wrong for Albo, it could still go right. But there are risks too.
The PM hasn’t specifically drawn the comparison between Dutton and Trump, in part because doing so might elicit a nasty response from the US President if he realises he is being insulted.
All Albo says when justifying his shady comparison – calling Dutton a copycat while denying he is using Trump as a political weapon – is that voters can make up their own minds about whether similarities exist.
It is clever because Trump isn’t overly popular in Australia, and his current tariffs agenda, alongside some of his massive cuts to government departments, are red flags that Dutton wouldn’t necessarily want to be associated with.
The size of Trump’s public sector cuts dwarf any of Dutton’s plans. Meanwhile, the tariffs are expected to hurt Australian exporters.
Albo’s comparison is designed to insulate the PM and Labor from the risk that Trump might come out at some time between now and polling day and endorse a vote for Dutton.
Anything is possible – and Trump has proven himself willing to inject his thoughts into the domestic affairs of other nations.
If Donald Trump made some supportive noises about Peter Dutton’s campaign it could be a big blow for the Liberals, in a country that is not overly supportive of Trump
To be fair, plenty of politicians around the world felt free to do the same when it came to Trump’s bid to become President, on each occasion.
Trump’s intervention would not be welcomed be Team Dutton.
If Trump did sit down and pen a furious ‘Truth Social’ post endorsing Dutton, Albo can point back to his recent comparisons.
He could note that it isn’t a surprising development because the pair have a lot in common.
It would be another poke in the eye for the Opposition Leader, whose personal ratings according to the latest Newspoll have now dropped to what Bill Shorten’s were ahead of the 2019 election.
Why Trump wouldn’t happen here
While Trump was electorally successful in the US, and voter resentments towards government failures in Australia to some extent echo those in the US before its election, the differences in voting systems suggest a Trump style campaign here would never work.
Compulsory voting, alongside compulsory preferencing, as we have federally, would likely have thwarted any attempt by a Trump-like figure to get elected. He preys on voters’ disillusionment to lower voter turnout amongst his opponents and to maximise turnout amongst supporters.
In Australia’s compulsory system the masses in the middle decide elections, and they don’t necessarily warm to Trump-style antics. Dutton would therefore do well to distance himself from such an approach.
To be fair, Dutton is nothing like Trump, however much Albo implies otherwise. But political campaigns are rarely wedded to the truth, especially scare campaigns.
Trump and Melania. Any intervention from the US President in the campaign would likely not be welcomed by Team Dutton
Albanese has trickily drawn a comparison between Trump and Dutton – all while denying that was what he was doing
This is a bipartisan problem.
Like it or not Dutton will have to deal with nearly five more weeks of being compared to Trump.
To turn that negative into a positive, he needs to point out that Albo characterising him in that way is an extension of Hillary Clinton’s attempt to paint Trump supporters as deplorables.
By likening Dutton to Trump and therefore implying he’s a villain, Albo risks anyone sympathetic to Trump viewing him as out of touch.
It is a somewhat long bow, to be sure, but it is all Dutton really has to throw Albo’s insults back at him.
The Clive factor
The attempt to slur Dutton by comparing him to Trump won’t go unnoticed by Clive Palmer, who actually is channeling his new party’s campaign as one emulating Trump.
Palmer will probably simply dismiss the comparison if for no other reason than he wants his party to be the only Trump-like player in the mix.
However, there is also a chance that the use of the insult amplifies Palmer’s criticisms of Team Albo, meaning that his enormous advertising spend might increasingly take aim at Albo and Labor.
Clive Palmer’s ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ is still a threat to Labor – given the mining billionaire could splurge millions on anti-Labor messaging
While Palmer’s new ‘Trumpet of Patriots’ party is unlikely to be electorally successfully or even competitive, that doesn’t necessarily mean its ad campaign won’t cut through when criticising other parties and politicians.
If it focuses more on Labor than the Coalition, that just might give Dutton a small edge in a tight race.
Meanwhile, the debate over whether or not Dutton does or doesn’t mini-me Trump once again highlights that Australian federal elections have become presidential style campaigns focused on the major party leaders.
This is the case even at this election which is likely to throw up a minority government with another record showing for the crossbench.