With 10 games on Monday’s MLB schedule and with higher temperatures, humidity and windy conditions in some spots, it’s a good time to try MLB betting and home run prop betting. With 20 teams in play, there are plenty of options, and weather, pitching matchups and ballpark characteristics are just some factors to consider when choosing a best bet to hit a home run today. Monday’s nightcap looks like the most intriguing game of the day, with the Rays visiting the Dodgers for an inter-league matchup at 10:10 p.m. ET. Anyone who wants to wager on the best home run bets today needs to see who SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is backing to go yard.
Magliocca, also known as “Amags,” is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Best Home Run picks for Monday
James Wood, Nationals (+393)
Wood now has three home runs in his last four games after a lead-off bomb Sunday that went 413 feet and was hit at 110 mph exit velocity. He has some of the best underlying metrics in all of baseball for home run power, with a barrel rate at 25% which puts him in the 100th percentile, and the same goes for his exit velocity and hard hit rate. In essence, he hits the ball hard in the air a lot, with many of those batted balls being on a line, affording him more opportunities for home runs and making him generally a good bet for a long ball.
He’ll face Mitch Spence, who was terrible in his only appearance at the MLB level this year and has struggled in Triple-A with an ERA over 6.50. He’s allowed six home runs in 42 innings, so it’s not like he’s been plagued by the long ball. However, if he’s bounced early or has his start is cut short due to workload restrictions, he’s backed up by a bullpen that is one of just five in MLB that has allowed 40+ home runs thus far.
Ian Happ, Cubs (+344)
Michael Lorenzen has some disgustingly bad stats against left-handed hitters this year, but he managed to stifle this Cubs lineup in his last start at Coors Field, allowing just two hits and no home runs. That came just one start after he allowed eight runs on 10 hits in just 3.1 innings against the Angels, so things have been very up and down for Lorenzen of late.
I think this Cubs lineup gets to him the second time around, and they’ll have the benefit of some hot weather with the wind blowing out in Wrigley Field. Lorenzen has surrendered eight home runs to lefties in just 27 innings, with 56 total hits and 13 walks allowed in that time. Just stunningly bad. Happ will bat from the left side, where he has hit 12 of his 16 home runs this year. He is hitting .254 with an OPS over .900 left-handed, which is significantly better than the other side of his split.
Junior Caminero, Rays (+243)
I don’t love the price here, but Caminero ranks as one of the best home run options on the slate tonight and for good reason. We get him near the top of the Rays order, and they are the away team, giving us good potential for a fifth at-bat. Eric Lauer is starting for L.A., and he has given up 11 home runs in 44 innings this year when facing right-handed batters. Lauer is also someone who’s more familiar to Caminero and the Rays than most inter-league pitcher matchups. He came over from the division rival Toronto Blue Jays earlier this year.
Caminero has hit three of four batted balls hard against Lauer over the last couple of matchups, and I think the Rays slugger actually has some room for improvement against lefties moving forward. He had 13 home runs in 176 at-bats against southpaws last year but has just three in 70 at-bats this year. Lauer won’t overpower you, and he throws the fastball more than 40% of the time to righties, which is the pitch that Caminero has two home runs vs. lefties on this year.
Worth Noting: I was on Michael Busch to hit a home run last time the Cubs faced off with Lorenzen, so I’m going to play him again, along with Pete Crow-Armstrong, who was one of the only hitters with success last time in this matchup. The value has been sucked out of both of their home run props, so I’m using various boosts across major sportsbooks to back some of the Cubs hitters for a home run in these positive conditions tonight.