The Voice to Parliament referendum is on track to lose all six states and win in just 22 out of 151 electorates in Australia’s federal parliament, according to modelling by an internationally regarded pollster.
The UK-based Focal Data research group forecasts the nation will vote No by 61 per cent to the Yes campaign’s 39 per cent at Saturday’s referendum after polling 4,500 Australians and modelling the outcome in every seat.
The only firm Yes seats are in the inner cities of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane – including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s seats of Grayndler and Sydney.
The Yes campaign has also won over Greens-held strongholds including Adam Bandt’s electorate of Melbourne and the south-east Queensland seats of Brisbane and Griffith, which were won by Greens young guns Stephen Bates and Max Chandler-Mather at the last election.
But 129 seats out of a total 151 seats in the House of Representatives are on track to vote No according to the polling estimates, including a series of teal electorates in Sydney – including Warringah on the northern beaches and Wentworth in the eastern suburbs.
Even Indigenous Affairs Minister Linda Burney’s own seat of Barton, in Sydney’s inner south, is forecast to vote No by a narrow margin – 53 per cent to 47 per cent, the data determined.
One seat in Queensland – Bob Katter’s northern seat of Kennedy, which is home to Cairns and Townsville – is forecast to vote 84 per cent No to the Voice. Eight of the 10 seats most likely to vote No are based in Queensland.
If the polling is correct, the No vote will triumph in every state – the worst case scenario for Mr Albanese and Yes campaigners. A referendum needs a majority of states and a majority of the national vote to get up.
Just 22 electorates (the darkest purple on the map) are on track to vote Yes in the upcoming Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, according to a survey by an international polling group, but there are 15 other electorates (light purple on the map) which are very close to a Yes vote with 47 per cent support or higher
The Prime Minister and his son, Nathan, cast their ballots on October 7
Both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ‘s seat of Grayndler and Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek’s Sydney are on track to vote Yes
While several polls, including Redbridge, Newspoll and Essential, have been tracking the falling Yes vote over the course of the campaign, this is the most detailed projection to date.
The seats of Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are all trending toward a Yes vote, but out in the suburbs, voters are less convinced.
The city of Sydney is registering the highest voter support for the Voice so far at 70 per cent in favour, with the PM’s Grayndler following at 64.5 per cent.
Melbourne is tracking a 64 per cent approval rating, with Canberra at 62 per cent and Adelaide at 59 per cent.
Beyond that, most of the ‘Yes’ suburbs are just scraping over the line, the data suggests.
‘It leaves Australia more divided than ever on an inner city versus rural basis,’ a Focal Data spokesperson said in a statement.
‘More broadly, it’s a fallout which could have been lifted straight from the U.K. Brexit analysis – except the ‘Yes’ side does materially worse than Remain.’
Bennelong in NSW – which takes in Chatswood, Ryde and Gladesville – Ryan in Queensland and Chisholm in Victoria – which includes Glen Waverely and Mulgrave – all have support around the 50 per cent mark, with Cooper in Victoria sitting at 51 per cent.
Greenway and Kingsford Smith in NSW, Wills in Victoria, Griffith in Queensland, Bean in the ACT and Perth all registered Yes votes with a support rate of about 52 per cent.
The remainder of the Yes electorates – Clark in Tasmania, Fenner in the ACT, Higgins and Macnamara in Victoria, and North Sydney and Reid in NSW – have support somewhere between 56 and 57 per cent.
No Liberal Party held seats are on track for a Yes vote, according to the data.
The referendum will be held on October 14, and polls suggest it will be defeated
But there are 15 seats where the Voice has the support of 47 per cent or more of the poll’s participants – meaning the referendum could still prevail in those areas when accounting for a small margin of error.
The affluent seats held by the ‘teal Independents’ are divided on the Voice. While Kylea Tink’s North Sydney is on track for a Yes vote, Monique Ryan’s Kooyong and Allegra Spender’s Wentworth are narrowly voting No at this stage, polling at 49 per cent support.
In Warringah, which includes wealthy suburbs on the lower northern beaches, support for the Voice in the latest poll is at about 44 per cent, meanwhile it drops to 37 per cent in the upper northern beaches suburbs of Mackellar.
Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney’s seat of Barton, comprising Kogarah, Bexley and Hurstville, is one of the 15 seats with over 47 per cent support, but less than the 50 per cent threshold needed for a Yes vote.
Queensland is leading the charge against the Voice in the Focal Point poll, making up eight of the top 10 highest No-voting electorates.
In Bob Katter’s electorate of Kennedy, including Cairns and Townsville, opposition to the Voice is polling at about 84 per cent, while Nationals leader David Littleproud’s enormous division of Maranoa sits at about 81 per cent.
Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn, Hinkler, Wilde Bay and Wright in Queensland all oppose the Voice at rates of 75 per cent or above according to the data.
Mallee in Victoria and O’Connor in Western Australia are the only two electorates outside of Queensland where opposition to the Voice is at 75 per cent or above.
The latest poll comes after The Australian released the most recent Newspoll, which found support for the Voice to Parliament declined ahead of this week’s referendum.
National support for the Voice fell to 34 per cent in the past fortnight ahead of Aussies casting their vote on October 14.
The referendum’s approval rating has reached its lowest ebb since it was first proposed, while support for the No vote rose two points to 58 per cent.
About eight per cent of voters are still undecided but since the ‘don’t know’ category has been removed as an option the split becomes 37/63 in favour of the No vote.
The poll, which surveyed 1,225 voters nationally between October 3 and October 6, found a troubling trend for the Yes campaign among its key group of voters.
For the first time, support for the referendum slumped to below 50 per cent in voters aged between 18 to 34 years old.
Young voters who intend to vote No rose eight percentage points to 49 per cent, with those planning to vote Yes dropped four points to 46 per cent.
Support for the Voice fell to 34 per cent in the past fortnight ahead of Aussies casting their vote on October 14