Alarm bells are ringing for the Albanese government with a new poll showing Voters are favouring the coalition over Labor in a sign the government’s cost-of-living relief may not be enough.
The Coalition has gained a percentage point in a month to lead Labor by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, in the latest Freshwater Strategy poll conducted for the Australian Financial Review.
This indicates a massive swing of 4.1 points away from Labor since the May 2022 election and brings a Coalition minority government into play.
If replicated uniformly at a federal election the swing would deliver the Coalition 75 seats, just one short of a majority, while Labor would plummet from 78 to 65.
Labor’s primary vote fell two points to 30 per cent, below the 32.6 per cent it received at the last election, while the Coalition’s rose a point to 42 per cent.
The Greens were also up one point on 13 per cent.
Anthony Albanese still leads Opposition leader Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 45 to 41 per cent but his disapproval rating has risen by 4 points in a month to 49 per cent and his approval slipped by 1 point to 34 per cent.
This gives him minus 15 as an overall approval rating compared to Mr Dutton who scored minus four with his approval rating at 34, down by 1 in a month, but his disapproval rate up by four to 34.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be concerned by the latest polling, which shows his government’s fortunes continuing to sag
The major issue that continues to drag down the Labor government is cost of living, which easily tops the ranking of top three issues that concern voters after being picked by 74 per cent of respondents.
On this issue the Coalition has doubled its lead to 14 points as the best party to curb runaway prices.
Housing and accommodation was the second highest nominated issue of voter concern followed by health and social care, economic management, crime and social order with the environment and climate change trailing the pack.
The Coalition’s strongest leads over Labor for perceived competence were in defence and national security (19), economic management (16), immigration and asylum (15), tax and public spending (15), crime and social order (14) and cost of living (14).
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton (pictured left with wife Kirilly Dutton) is hoping to be in the box seat for the next federal election
Labor minister Clare O’Neil said the government was focused on cost of living and affordable housing ahead of the federal election, which must be held by the end of May.
She pointed to the government’s tax cuts, a $300 energy bill rebate to help households pay their power bills this year and cheaper medicines.
‘All of these things are really important, and almost all of them were opposed by the coalition,’ Ms O’Neil told Nine’s Today show.
‘There’s one party in Canberra that is desperately focused on trying to ease the pressure on Australians and that’s Labor, and we’ll keep doing that right up until election day.’
But independent senator Jacqui Lambie said the government was ‘delusional’ if it thought that would get them over the line for a second term.
‘Labor’s a little delusional, to be honest,’ she told Nine.
‘We’re about to go into Christmas, they’re going to an election next year, you’re going to have all those Christmas credit card bills with whatever people can afford to buy.
‘Then kids are going back to school and we still don’t know what’s going on with interest rates.’
Senator Lambie also challenged the value of the power bill rebates, saying that overall bills weren’t coming down.
‘I don’t think people are getting the sugar hit out of this … that Labor thinks that they are,’ she said.
‘I would ask them to come outside of their bubble, to get outside of their offices, and get out there with their boots on.
‘They’re not quite getting this right and there is not near enough relief out there.’
Commenting on the poll findings, Freshwater Strategy director Michael Turner told the Australian Financial Review that the most likely outcome at the next poll was a minority government for either the Coalition or Labor.
‘We are well and truly into an uncertain zone, with who is able to form government a matter of speculation right now,’ Dr Turner said.
‘If an election were held today, no one can be confident that Labor will have the numbers to form a minority, let alone a majority government.’
The online poll of 1057 voters was taken from last Friday to Saturday.
While the Labor’s fortunes are far from lost at this point, the polling trend has been consistently heading south raising the possibility of a single-term government.
A recent poll for News Ltd papers showed the Albanese government losing ground in the eastern states – where most of electoral seats are – with Labor down to 24 per cent in Queensland, 28 in Victoria and 32 in NSW.
On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor is being trounced 57-43 by the Coalition in Queensland, it’s behind 52-48 in Victoria and in NSW it’s tied 50-50.