Russia’s military, stopped outside Kharkiv (again) by Ukraine, is applying pressure in Ukraine’s east, hoping to seize the longtime military headquarters of Kramatorsk. Just as Ukraine recently requested permission to employ foreign weapons and ammunition against military targets on Russian territory to the north, now they’re asking for those restrictions to be lifted in their east.
Over recent months, a longstanding debate has come to the fore among Ukraine’s Western supporters: whether to finally allow Ukraine full discretion to use weapons provided by such countries as Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. to strike valuable Russian military targets on Russian territory.
Ukraine can strike Russian military targets on Ukrainian territory, and on parts of its front to the north of Kharkiv. But it has been prohibited from using those weapons to fire at targets elsewhere. It cannot strike factories where drones are assembled, training facilities near Rostov-on-Don, military headquarters or weapons depots.
The argument comes down to whether one believes Russia will view the use of these weapons as an escalation and do something about it, or whether Russia won’t (or can’t). I place myself with the latter group. Russia has a seemingly endless stock of idle threats, and is very able to use those threats, but no — as in zero — appetite for a broader war with the U.S. and Europe.
One reason why Russia’s threats against other European countries are fundamentally empty is the general unwisdom of starting new wars with neighbors when already engaged in fighting. Nazi Germany started a war with the USSR that it could ill afford, which helped lead to Hitler’s defeat. The U.S. hadn’t finished subduing the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan before going in on Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003 — dooming its hopes to fundamentally change the governance structure in either country. Napoleon’s invasion of Russia while already engaged against Great Britain and its allies doomed his imperial ambitions. The list goes on.
So for Putin to attack any member of NATO (least of all America) and invite the full might of Europe to enter a war on Ukraine’s side, while the outcome of that war remains very much in doubt, would not be reckless or foolhardy; it would spell doom for the dictator and his mad schemes.
Another reason those threats are almost certainly hollow is that Russia’s entire military operation in Ukraine has depended on the premise that Russia has safe places to muster and carry out its operations. Balancing that account and permitting Ukraine to strike Russia when and where it likes will force Russia’s hand — compelling it to carry out an operational pace on the offense its military cannot sustain without breaking, or absorbing ongoing punishing strikes while Ukraine can (at last) achieve superiority wherever Russia places an abundance of forces.
This will present Russia with an impossible choice — go forward into defeat, or stay still and be defeated more slowly. Either way, it gives Ukraine a marked advantage — one that the embattled country deserves, and one that will in the long run, alongside ongoing weapons and ammunition support and training support, lead to victory.
There is one prudent guardrail that the U.S. can maintain on its weapons: They not be used to deliberately target civilians or civilian infrastructure. There are some Ukrainians who, understandably angry at Russia for its terror tactics in bombing malls and hospitals, hope to return that terror on the Russian people. While I understand their rage and sorrow, this is not an acceptable use of weapons, and the U.S. and Europe should insist that its weapons not be used to target Russian civilians. The goal here is not to harm innocents, but to assist Ukraine in the achievable defeat of Russia’s military and military capacity.
Since it first invaded Ukraine in 2014, Russia has depended on the safety and sanctity of its territory to organize and move soldiers and equipment to and from the front in Ukraine. This advantage has allowed near-unthinkable advantages, including the ability to mass forces, and to sustain ongoing offensives with ammunition and manpower.
The U.S. and Europe must permit Ukraine to use Western weapons against any Russian military target. Thus, Ukraine will be one important step closer to defeating Russia’s invasion — and returning the region to a peace that was shattered when Putin arrogantly and wickedly ordered the Russian military to invade its peaceful neighbor.
Adrian Bonenberger is a writer and a veteran of the U.S. Army. He is a co-founder of American Veterans for Ukraine.