Anthony Albanese‘s election masterplan was one of the biggest casualties as Tropical Cyclone Alfred barreled towards Brisbane.
The Prime Minister was tipped to go to the polls on April 12, requiring an announcement on Sunday or Monday to allow for the legally-mandated minimum 33 days of campaigning.
But, with Alfred heading for the Queensland and Northern NSW Coast threatening lives and homes, he was suddenly forced to abandon that plan late on Friday.
‘I have no intention of doing anything that distracts from what we need to do,’ grim-faced Mr Albanese told the ABC that evening.
‘And what we need to do is to look after each other at this difficult time. This is not a time for looking at politics.’
An admirable sentiment perhaps, but now it puts the Prime Minister in a dilemma, with three alternative dates to choose from.
It also leaves the government having to lay down a pre-poll Budget he would have preferred to avoid.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers will now likely be splashing the red ink in a forecast Budget deficit on March 25, just as the government is campaigning on its economic credentials.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (pictured) had been widely tipped to call an election either on Sunday or today for April 12, as electoral laws dictate a minimum 33-day campaign
But, with Alfred barrelling towards the Queensland and Northern NSW Coast, threatening lives and livelihoods, he made the difficult decision to abandon his original plan on Friday
The eleventh-hour shift means politicians will now have to campaign throughout Easter, Anzac Day and the school holidays when many voters are distracted, as a May election date now seems inevitable.
The PM will be keen to avoid interrupting those long weekends, so April 19, in the middle of the Easter weekend, or April 26, the day after Anzac Day, are unlikely election dates.
That means there are only really three realistic dates it could be: May 3, May 10 or May 17 – the last possible day it could be held.
But May 3 is complicated by the fact it is the NRL’s Magic Round where all teams will play in Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium that weekend, meaning all travelling fans will have to cast pre-poll absentee ballots.
Since the Magic Round started in 2019 there have been two federal elections held on and on both occasions the incumbent Prime Minister made sure there was not a date clash.
In 2022, PM Scott Morrison called the election for the week after Magic Round, on May 21, and in 2019, Australians went to the polls the weekend before the footy extravaganza.
In late February, Mr Albanese was asked about whether the election will take place on April 12, during the AFL Gather Round in Adelaide, when the same issue with travelling fans would have cropped up.
A possible election date of May 3 is complicated by the fact it is the NRL’s Magic round where all teams will play in Brisbane’s Suncorp stadium over that weekend (pictured: Lachlan Galvin of the Tigers in action during the NRL Round 11 match between the Wests Tigers and the Redcliffe Dolphins last year)
‘PM, just quickly, you get asked this a lot but Gather Round and the election, they might coincide…’, the reporter began.
But before they could finish their question the Prime Minister snapped back: ‘It’s so boring.’
‘It’s so boring. Gather Round is fantastic… what’s boring is questions about election timing because I’ve been asked it for a year,’ Mr Albanese said.
He is yet to be asked about whether the date will clash with Magic Round but journalists can expect a similar response.
That leaves just May 10 and May 17.
But May 10 is the day before Mother’s Day, with some people voicing concern about the clash, as some families travel interstate to re-unite.
It remains to be seen when Mr Albanese will now visit Governor-General Sam Mostyn to officially call the election.
Bu what is clear is that his choices are narrowing – and the decision is rapidly being taken out of his control.