How college basketball regained its place as top NBA development option

There is an alternate reality — one before the dawn of the name, image and likeness era in college basketball — in which projected NBA draft lottery pick Egor Demin stayed in Spain the year before he declared for the draft to continue playing for the EuroLeague’s Real Madrid. In this reality, though, he relocated to the United States — to Provo, Utah, more than 5,000 miles away from his hometown of Moscow, Russia.

Friends and family needed convincing that the move to play for former NBA coach Kevin Young at BYU was the right decision to help Demin achieve his dreams of playing professionally in the United States. That task became even more difficult when he told them he had never seen the campus, and Demin told ESPN: “That was pretty wild for people to hear that I’ve committed to BYU without visiting it. My first time when I was there, it was pretty much when I moved over there.”

But Young, a former assistant with the Philadelphia 76ers and the Phoenix Suns, had made Demin a compelling promise: If the 6-foot-9 guard came to play for the Cougars, he would grow in a system created to mimic the NBA — one that would prepare him for the next level better than any other environment. (The $1 million-plus NIL package was compelling, too.)

By the end of a season that ended with BYU’s first Sweet 16 run in more than a decade, Young had delivered on that promise.

“It’s everything,” Young told ESPN about how BYU emulates the professional ranks. “It’s style of play. It’s how we work out. It’s who works them out. It’s what they eat, who tells them what to eat. It’s all those things that are giving him a head start, not just, ‘Hey, our head coach was in the NBA.’ It’s an all-encompassing type of program.”

The way BYU and other programs have modeled their operations after NBA teams, coupled with the lucrative NIL opportunities in college, has helped pave the way for a significant shift in the NBA development pipeline.

Between 2015 and 2022, an average of 12 of the top 14 lottery picks were college players, per ESPN Research. Yet the last two drafts featured a total of only 17 college players in the lottery. In 2023, when Victor Wembanyama went No. 1 to the San Antonio Spurs, five of the top seven picks came from international leagues, Overtime Elite or the now-defunct G League Ignite. Last year, four of the top six picks came through one of those developmental paths.

But this year, ESPN projects 12 college basketball players will be picked in the lottery, which would tie the second most since 2015, per ESPN Research. After a period in which college basketball had become almost an afterthought in NBA development, it seems to have reemerged at the top.

As the No. 13 pick in ESPN’s latest mock draft, Demin is a prime example of why. The slick guard’s intangibles — including a 6-foot-10¼ wingspan — probably would have positioned him to earn a spot in the first round of the draft regardless of the path he’d chosen. But during BYU’s Sweet 16 run, NBA executives and scouts had a chance to watch Demin lead an elite program on one of the sport’s biggest stages.

“[College basketball is] a better adjustment to American basketball since the final goal is to be an NBA player for me,” Demin said. “So [I knew] this transition would probably help me a lot. Obviously, we’ll never know how it would be if I’d stayed in Europe or let’s say, went back to Russia or whatever it is. But at the moment, I think it was a better, a more clear path.

“I would better adjust to American basketball, the physicality, how quick the game is, how fast people are and all that.”

College basketball is once again king and, as such, has become the most desirable option for players with NBA aspirations.

“I would say being a young kid, you still want to have fun in college a little bit,” said Dylan Mingo, an uncommitted five-star prospect in the 2026 recruiting class with his eye on the 2027 NBA draft. “But really, [the appeal of college basketball is] just having the ability to be in the gym 24/7, going to class and just staying locked in.”

As college basketball regains its perch in the draft’s pecking order, it also offers a fascinating pool of talent mixed with one-and-done prospects, veterans and international players — a rare combination in this era. Duke’s Cooper Flagg (one-and-done), Colorado State’s Nique Clifford (fifth-year senior) and BYU’s Demin (international freshman) will all secure spots in the first round of the draft.

And in a midwestern town of 89,000, one college basketball program continues to pump out NBA prospects from each of those buckets.

Illinois head coach Brad Underwood has sent every type of prospect from Champaign to the NBA draft in recent years. Freshmen Kasparas Jakucionis from Lithuania and Will Riley are projected to go in the first round just a year after transfer Terrence Shannon Jr. was selected at No. 27 after an All-American season for the Fighting Illini. In 2021, former Illinois star Ayo Dosunmu was picked in the second round before signing a $21 million deal with the Chicago Bulls two years later.

That foursome all shared a similar trait.

“They’re professionals,” Underwood told ESPN. “They know how to work. They’re very much mature. They didn’t get wrapped up in anything else. I think the other thing that was extremely obvious was that they played to win. They’re extremely, extremely competitive. I mean, all of those guys have a different level of competitive juice. Not for one second did those guys play for anything other than the ability to win.”

For Underwood, NIL opportunities have helped his program identify and produce NBA talent. Although NIL is more complicated for international prospects, programs have found the loopholes to pay those athletes more than they would have made in Europe. It was a significant factor in the NBA’s decision to end its G League Ignite program after the 2023-24 season as more prospects chose to go to college. Overtime Elite has moved its focus to high school players for the same reasons.

“Now these kids can go to college and get paid — and most of these kids would prefer to go to college and play in March Madness and do these things, if all things are equal,” one NBA agent said.

But there is another component that matters. “You can build culture in college,” Underwood said. Experience in a program’s culture helps NBA teams feel more comfortable about selecting players from the college ranks and is one of the reasons for the level’s increasing edge over other developmental options.

“[Demin] was able to adapt to a different style of play while still being surrounded by people who respected his background and embraced his journey,” Nikola Filipovich, Demin’s agent, told ESPN. “I think that experience has hardened him and prepared him to thrive in any environment, and that’s exactly what he’ll face in the NBA.

“BYU didn’t just teach him how to play in the U.S., but I think it also taught him how to live within the U.S.”

College basketball’s return to the top of the developmental hierarchy has also coincided with a change in the NBA: Pro teams often want more polished talent as the financial stakes rise and the pressure to win intensifies.

Joe Mazulla and Steve Kerr are the only NBA coaches who have won an NBA title since 2016 and are still with the same team. In the current climate, college teams with a proven track record can offer a stable path for prospects and a reliable source for NBA teams leery of picking the wrong player. That has opened the door for experienced, mature upperclassmen who were largely ignored throughout the one-and-done era.

Long before the start of that trend, Tennessee’s Rick Barnes coached multiple NBA draft picks, including Kevin Durant during his time at Texas. For the can’t-miss players, the process is simple, he said.

“Kevin Durant could have gone anywhere and been the No. 1 pick,” Barnes said. “He should’ve been the No. 1 pick.”

For others, the draft is more complicated. When NBA teams talk to Barnes about his players — like 2024 lottery pick Dalton Knecht — they express a confidence in the futures of college-produced prospects because they know the players have been challenged to consider the details that can make a significant difference in the NBA.

“We’re still trying to teach them how to carry themselves,” Barnes said. “We talk about during the timeout, when you’re not in the game, where do you stand? There are [NBA] people up there in that scout box watching you right now. Are you engaged in the timeout? Are you wandering around? Are you looking up? Making eyes at your girlfriend? What are you doing?”

One Western Conference scout added that the allure of college players is “they’ve been coached right,” he said. “It’s about discipline. It’s about being able to play with others first.”

If the top programs in the country were trying to reach him in April, Darrion Williams‘ phone was off. After a close loss to Florida in the Elite Eight, he withdrew from the NBA draft and entered the transfer portal — then went to Europe with some of his Texas Tech teammates to get their minds off the season’s ending.

“Some people might’ve called and I didn’t answer and they stopped calling,” he said.

Williams, a 6-foot-6 standout who earned all-Big 12 first-team honors last season, surprised many when he picked NC State over Kansas and other contenders. But Will Wade’s approach emulated a professional team’s makeup, Williams said. And he believed the Wolfpack’s new coach could prepare him for the NBA better than any other program.

On a hot day in Raleigh earlier this month, Williams and his teammates lifted weights ahead of a group workout, because NBA teams operate that way, Wade said.

Andrew Slater, the program’s general manager and chief strategist who has previously worked as a consultant and evaluation scout for the Oklahoma City Thunder, is charged with molding things into a professional operation. During the evaluation process, NBA teams told Williams he could be picked from late in the first round to early in the second round in this year’s draft. They also told him he would have to become a better defender and more consistent shooter to play at the next level. Williams said he picked NC State in part because of Slater’s experience in the NBA, adding he was impressed when Slater shared data on the statistical marks Williams would have to hit this season to earn that spot in the first round.

“I felt like if I used one more year and really honed in on everything and got with a coach like [Wade] and [strength coach Greg Goldin] in the weight room and burn on the court, I think I can solidify myself as a first-rounder and that’s what I’m trying to do this year,” Williams said.

A decade ago, Williams and other college veterans were afterthoughts at the height of the one-and-done days. The pursuit of youth does remain; the 12 freshmen ESPN projects in the top 14 would set a record for the most selected in the lottery era, per ESPN Research. But the league’s new CBA agreement, which levies severe financial penalties on teams that overspend and offers an exemption to facilitate the signing of second-round talent, has created a bigger market for players who need more time to develop and more paths to the NBA.

“Teams are going to start saying, ‘Well maybe we don’t need three stars,'” one Eastern Conference scout said about the financial pressures of the current NBA. “Or they’ll have three superstars and a bunch of minimum-salary players. That’s why in college, now, they will take a senior. Five years ago, you would bring a senior to the table and they would say, ‘Well, he’s already 22.'”

It’s worth noting that the bulk of this year’s prospects won’t come from college basketball’s blue bloods. The collective of Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and UCLA might not have a first-round pick for the first time since 2004. The top prospects today are picking programs according to desired roles, systems and resources. They want a chance to win, stand out and work with a team that can prepare them for the next level. Many of the projected top picks in this year’s draft played for colleges that had coaches or other staffers with NBA experience.

At Illinois, Jakucionis and Riley worked with assistant Zach Hamer, who was with the Los Angeles Lakers before he joined Underwood’s program. Fellow projected first-round pick Asa Newell was elevated by Darryl Hardin, Georgia’s director of player development who has trained NBA stars such as Indiana Pacers all-star Pascal Siakam. And potential top-seven pick Jeremiah Fears benefited from weight-room sessions with Ty Terrell, Oklahoma’s director of strength and conditioning, a role similar to the ones he had with the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks.

Though college basketball could soon have a monopoly on American talent and an advantage over European teams with international players who have NBA hopes, the edge will belong to programs that operate like NBA teams. There is a belief that the next generation of prospects will not just hope for potential college suitors to have staff members with pro experience — it will be a requirement.

“I do think the player development can improve,” one NBA agent said. “I just think with the resources [college basketball programs] have and the money they have, I think the player development could improve a little bit. I think teams should be hiring guys with NBA experience.”