United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement on most trading partners, including several in Africa, will affect businesses and people across the continent and likely force more producers to trade with China, experts have warned.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” declaration on Wednesday threw markets into chaos, as the US took its strongest turn to protectionist policies since the 1930s, weakening a global trade system the US helped build and strengthen.
The tariffs, which include a baseline, universal 10 percent duty on all US imports as well as additional tariffs on “worst offender” countries like Nigeria and South Africa, will also likely override a decades-long open trade agreement that has seen African manufacturers export goods to the US duty-free and that has been credited for creating tens of thousands of jobs, analysts say.
Established in 2000, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) framework helped grow the continent’s exports of textiles, steel, and agricultural products, among others, to the US.
The AGOA was set for a second renewal this year, but is now likely to be jeopardised by Trump’s trade war, according to analysts.
Here’s what to know about how African countries were hit and what the likely effects could be:
Which African countries have been hit and by how much?
Africa’s largest economies, Nigeria (14 percent) and South Africa (31 percent), were among those on Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs list — that is, countries the president said “treat us badly”.
They included those that impose high tariffs on US goods or have introduced other barriers to US trade, according to Washington. Those tariffs will take effect on April 9, while the universal tariffs begin on April 5.
Southern African countries were particularly badly hit. Lesotho, the small Southern African country that Trump claimed “ no one has heard of” last month, was hit with the highest tariff rates at 50 percent. The country, which carries the second-highest HIV burden of any other in the world, is still reeling from the shock of Trump’s sweeping aid cuts earlier that have gutted HIV response efforts across the region.
Other Southern African countries hit were: Madagascar (47 percent); Mauritius (40 percent); Botswana (37 percent); and Angola (32 percent).
South Africa was also earlier affected by a separate 25-percent tariff on all foreign-made cars that went into force this week. South Africa exports vehicles and parts worth $2bn to the US under the AGOA framework, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Competition.
Here are the tariffs in excess of 10 percent imposed on other African countries:
- Algeria – 30 percent
- Cameroon – 12 percent
- Chad -13 percent
- Democratic Republic of the Congo – 11 percent
- Equatorial Guinea – 13 percent
- Ivory Coast – 21 percent
- Libya – 31 percent
- Malawi – 18 percent
- Mozambique – 16 percent
- Namibia – 21 percent
- Tunisia – 28 percent
- Zambia – 17 percent
- Zimbabwe – 18 percent
What have African governments said?
South Africa’s government, which has been involved in a series of spats with Washington in recent weeks, was the first to respond to the tariff hikes.
In a statement on Thursday, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s office called the tariffs on the country “punitive” and added that they would “serve as a barrier to trade and shared prosperity.” The government also pledged to seek redress with Washington.
The Presidency has noted with concern the newly imposed tariffs on South African exports to the United States of America (USA). https://t.co/Y3YgJd7ECP
— The Presidency 🇿🇦 (@PresidencyZA) April 3, 2025
“The tariffs affirm the urgency to negotiate a new bilateral and mutually beneficial trade agreement with the US, as an essential step to secure long-term trade certainty,” the statement read.
According to the US government, South Africa charges a 60 percent tariff on US goods, while Lesotho charges 99 percent. Madagascar, the White House claimed, levies 93 percent tariffs on US goods, and Mauritius, 80 percent.
Trump and his close ally, Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa, have criticised South Africa for land reform policies that they claim discriminate against the country’s white minority population. Trump has also offered citizenship to white South Africans. On Wednesday, during his announcement, Trump said, “Bad things are going on there.”
How will tariffs impact AGOA?
Experts say the tariffs will most significantly impact African economies that are reliant on US trade, and that they will effectively override AGOA privileges. Currently, 32 African countries are eligible for the programme. Countries can be, and have been, taken off the list – such as Niger and Gabon, which lost their benefits after military coups.
The AGOA, which expires in September, grants duty-free access to more than 1,800 products from eligible sub-Saharan African countries and has formed the backbone of US-Africa trade policy for 25 years. It was renewed for 10 years in 2015. Chocolate and basket-weaving materials from Mauritius, musical instruments from Mali and nuts from Mozambique are among the products that have reached US buyers through AGOA.
While it is still officially operational, it’s unclear if the Trump administration will renew it again. Certainly, Trump’s tariff announcements “set it along the path to die”, Cheta Nwanze, lead partner at Lagos-based risk analysis firm SBM Intelligence, told Al Jazeera.
“African countries aren’t known for making firm geopolitical stances, so many of them will try to hold on to AGOA, which means it will go into zombie mode rather than dying off,” he said.
The programme has been hailed by economists for years for opening the US market to African manufacturers, although critics say its strict production and packaging requirements often favour bigger economies. Kenya’s AGOA sales, mainly textiles and apparel, went from $55m in 2001 to $603m in 2022.
What countries will be most affected?
South Africa and Nigeria are the top US trading partners on the continent. South Africa primarily exports precious stones, steel products, and cars (mainly from BMW South Africa) to the US. Nigeria exports crude oil and other petroleum products. In return, the US exports crude oil, electrical goods and aircraft to South Africa, and mostly vehicles and machinery to Nigeria.
Ghana (cocoa and crude), Ethiopia (coffee), and Kenya (textiles, tea) also record large volumes of trade with the US annually under the AGOA. Though not listed as “offenders”, these countries face the 10 percent universal tariffs.
Heavier tariffs would have varying but largely negative impacts on African manufacturers, analysts say, and could lead to increased living costs and a loss of jobs that would affect the general populace.
“Increased export costs would reduce competitiveness, potentially decreasing revenue and destabilising economies,” Nwanze of SBM Intelligence told Al Jazeera.
Sectors such as the agricultural and mineral extraction businesses are likely to be particularly vulnerable, he added, as most African manufacturers sell raw goods, not finished products, to the US.
Nigeria is still in the throes of a cost-of-living crisis that has led to high levels of hunger and poverty. South Africa, meanwhile, already records some of the highest levels of unemployment in the world, with an estimated six out of 10 people out of a job. Experts there had earlier estimated that a 25-percent blanket tariff would be a “worst case scenario”.
Speaking to the South African publication IOL before Trump’s announcement, Casey Sprake, an economist at South African investment firm Anchor Capital, said a 25-percent scenario could cut the country’s economic growth by between 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points. The country ended up with 31 percent.
How will African countries react?
In the short term, countries like South Africa appear to want to reason with Trump for more favourable terms.
In a statement earlier this week, Trade Minister Parks Tau said the country was urgently seeking a meeting with Washington. Tau noted that South Africa’s automobile exports account for only 0.99 percent of total US automobile imports and 0.27 percent of auto parts – figures he said hardly posed a threat to the US market.
In general, African nations are likely to turn to alternative trade partners, such as China, to avoid US tariffs, Nwanze added. Already, for nearly 20 years, China has overtaken the US as Africa’s top trading partner and represents one of the continent’s largest bilateral lenders.
China imports primary goods, such as crude oil, iron ore, copper, and is increasingly focusing on agricultural produce, as well. On the other hand, the country exports finished products, such as electronics, back to the continent.