Senate Republicans are trying to win over Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) to back the party’s ambitious tax cut plan amid fears they could lose a couple of conservative senators.
President Trump has made it a priority to engage with Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), who all have concerns about the emerging package.
But some Republicans worry Johnson and Paul could be particularly tough sells on the legislation, which makes winning over Murkowski and Collins all the more important in a vote where the GOP cannot afford more than three defections.
“It’s shortening,” one Senate Republican told The Hill about the party’s margins.
Paul has long been viewed as highly likely to vote against the eventual bill as it includes a $4 trillion debt ceiling hike. He’s made it known that is a red line for him.
But it’s Johnson who is a more acute problem for leadership.
According to two sources familiar with the meeting, Johnson on Wednesday got into an extended back-and-forth with Trump during the Senate Finance Committee’s meeting at the White House, with one of the sources going a step further and describing it as “contentious.”
While Republicans think Johnson may still come to back the bill, the exchange only made GOP leaders more unsettled about him.
That means they have to make sure Murkowski and Collins, who memorably voted against Trump on various issues in his first term, are in play on the bill.
“It’s a very delicate balance,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told The Hill. “Obviously, we have people that have different priorities, different equities that run the gamut in terms of the political spectrum.”
“We’re hearing everybody out, finding out what’s important to them, and figuring out if there’s a way to address that in the context of the bill,” Thune continued. “But it’s a process.”
Thune is bearing the brunt of the Collins-Murkowski work, multiple Senate GOP sources said. He’s held a number of one-and-one and small group meetings.
Both senators have big-ticket items they want to see revised in the bill.
Murkowski has made clear her worries about potential Medicaid work requirements, as she believes her state will have trouble implementing them due to its outdated payment systems for the program, and the bill’s potential nixing of renewable energy tax credits.
The pair have both expressed concerns over what overall reductions could mean for key segments of their states, including tribes for Murkowski and rural individuals and hospitals for Collins.
The Maine Republican also cited possible Medicaid beneficiary cuts when she voted against the budget blueprint in early April.
The push is only expected to intensify in the coming days as relevant committees unveil their portions of the bill text.
“We’re still building things on our side. … Everyone is pulling this gumby in lots of different directions,” Murkowski told reporters on Thursday, explaining that while there are provisions for energy and the Coast Guard that are very positive for her state, more is needed on the Medicaid side.
Murkowski also indicated that while she has not gotten the call from Trump just as conservatives did, she also is in touch with other administration figures. Among those is Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz, whom she talked to briefly after he addressed a Senate GOP luncheon last week. The two are expected to speak early this week to discuss her concerns more in depth.
Collins separately is expected to lean on a number of agency heads as she carries out what members have described as a methodical process.
“Susan works extremely hard, [is] very detailed, knows everything, has a lot of history. [There’s] different issues in Maine than in a lot of other places and everybody respects that.” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), a member of GOP leadership.
There are also political considerations at play, leading some to believe Murkowski will be easier to win. Collins is up for reelection next year in a state that voted for former Vice President Harris.
Whether either backs the bill may depend on the impacts of the package on their respective states.
Murkowski backed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in large part because the bill opened up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for drilling, which had been among her top priorities in the upper chamber throughout her tenure.
“If it works for Alaska, he’s not going to need to pressure me,” Murkowski said when asked if it would be a mistake for Trump to pressure her during this process. “If it works for Alaska, it works for me and gets my vote.”