President Trump’s policies could threaten many big green energy projects in the coming years, but his election has already dealt a big blow to an ambitious California effort to replace thousands of diesel-fueled trucks with battery-powered semis.
The California plan, which has been closely watched by other states and countries, was meant to take a big leap forward last year, with a requirement that some of the more than 30,000 trucks that move cargo in and out of ports start using semis that don’t emit carbon dioxide.
But after Mr. Trump was elected, California regulators withdrew their plan, which required a federal waiver that the new administration, which is closely aligned with the oil industry, would most likely have rejected. That leaves the state unable to force trucking businesses to clean up their fleets. It was a big setback for the state, which has long been allowed to have tailpipe emission rules that are stricter than federal standards because of California’s infamous smog.
Some transportation experts said that even before Mr. Trump’s election, California’s effort had problems. The batteries that power electric trucks are too expensive. They take too long to charge. And there aren’t enough places to plug the trucks in.
“It was excessively ambitious,” said Daniel Sperling, a professor at the University of California, Davis, who specializes in sustainable transportation, referring to the program that made truckers buy green rigs.
California officials insist that their effort is not doomed and say they will keep it alive with other rules and by providing truckers incentives to go electric.
“We know we have a lot of work to do, but we also have tools to accomplish this,” said Liane M. Randolph, chair of the California Air Resources Board, the state body that sets clean air standards, at the ceremonial opening of a truck charging station near the Port of Long Beach in January.
California requires truck manufacturers to sell an increasing number of zero-emissions heavy trucks in the state. This rule is more protected from any challenge by the Trump administration. In an agreement struck after the rule was introduced, the manufacturers committed to comply with its requirements regardless of the outcome of any future litigation, and California agreed to soften the rule.
In theory, California’s plans to first electrify port trucks had a lot going for it. Fumes from such vehicles contribute to well-documented health problems like childhood asthma in neighborhoods near the ports and warehouses. Heavy-duty transportation in California is estimated to emit as much carbon dioxide, the main cause of climate change, annually as New Zealand.
Also, these trucks travel distances that battery-powered semis can handle on one charge, roughly 200 miles. The hope was that — with the right regulatory sticks and carrots — carriers, truck manufacturers, charging companies and utilities would create an electric trucking network that would serve as springboard for a broader effort to remove diesel rigs from the state by 2045.
It was not that simple in practice.
Port truckers are overwhelmingly small operators that earn only slim profits. They typically prefer used diesel rigs that sell for as little as $40,000 and are reluctant to take on the financial risk of acquiring electric tractor-trailers, which can cost around $150,000 after government incentives. Without that aid, the trucks cost $500,000.
Truckers make money by wringing as many hours as possible out of trucks. But electric rigs can take up to two hours to charge.
“The reality is we don’t really expect to make much money with these trucks right now,” said Erick Gordon, vice president of Redefined Transportation, whose fleet of 25 diesel rigs moves containers from the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles to warehouses in the area. He is weighing whether to lease five electric trucks.
The state had hoped to require newly registered port trucks to be zero-emissions vehicles — most such trucks today run on batteries. Since port truckers must retire diesel vehicles after a certain number of years, the rule would have gradually removed all diesel trucks from ports. California had sought a waiver for the rule from the Environmental Protection Agency because the regulation is stricter than federal standards. But the Biden administration did not approve the request in its final weeks.
Still, some trucking executives said they intended to keep deploying electric trucks.
“It doesn’t really have any impact on where we’re going,” said Jessica Cordero, a vice president at NFI Cal Cartage, a large logistics company. “We have our own initiatives and goals.”
NFI has 70 electric and 50 diesel trucks operating in California, and used grants to cover the cost of the vehicles. The electric fleet is turning a profit, Ms. Cordero said, in part because it costs less to fuel and maintain the vehicles.
Rudy Diaz, chief executive of Hight Logistics, a port trucking company in Long Beach with 20 electric semis and chargers in its yard, said he, too, had achieved significant cost savings. But now that port truckers aren’t required to buy green vehicles, he fears that competitors deploying much cheaper diesel vehicles will have an advantage.
“It makes me nervous — we invested in this infrastructure and these new trucks hoping that the waiver will pass,” he said, referring to the E.P.A. waiver.
Because regulators can no longer force truckers to go green, the financial carrots available to truckers are even more important.
Climate United, a group of environmental nonprofits specializing in green investments, plans to spend $250 million it received in August from the Biden administration on 500 electric trucks that it intends to lease to small trucking firms through Forum Mobility, a company that also provides charging.
The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach impose fees on diesel trucks. Some of those funds have been used to subsidize electric trucks and chargers. And last year, the California Air Resources Board decided that some of the money that electricity utilities get from selling clean energy credits would also be used to subsidize zero-emission trucks.
Some people involved in the push think technological advances will help increase use of electric trucks.
Salim Youssefzadeh, co-founder and chief executive of WattEV, a truck charging company, said new, higher capacity chargers could allow trucks to charge in just 30 minutes, allowing truckers to get back on the road quickly. In some of its locations, WattEV is building solar and battery storage, which reduces its cost of electricity.
Lower prices for electric trucks will also help. Wen Han started an electric truck company, Windrose Technology, in 2022 in China. He aims to start selling his vehicles in the United States this year for around $250,000 — well below the cost of those sold by more established manufacturers. He said he could make money at that price, even with U.S. tariffs, which are 40 percent for the truck Windrose makes, because of his low manufacturing costs.
“Our job is to make diesel trucks obsolete,” he said, “and that happens with or without any sort of subsidies.”
Bianca Calanche, whose company, Jaspem Truckline, operates at ports in the Los Angeles area, said it would be hard to deploy electric trucks because she didn’t have chargers in her truck depot. But she is still considering them, because she is worried that subsidies for electric trucks will run out and that the state will try to force companies like hers to electrify once Mr. Trump has left office.
“This will still come back to us,” she said. “It’s California.”