Australia Senate, Adam Bandt election results LIVE: ‘Very bad news’ for Adam Bandt as polling expert rules Greens leader is in ‘major trouble’

Polling expert Dr Kevin Bonham has suggested Greens leader Adam Bandt is in ‘major trouble’.

Labor’s Sarah Witty is currently leading in the race for the seat of Melbourne by an estimated 3,645 votes and is almost 5 per cent ahead.

Bandt needs around a third of preferences to retain his seat but the AEC’s official preference counts reveal flows of under 26 per cent.

‘Very bad preference flows for Bandt in a few booths today dragging his projection in my model down to 49.1 (live count),’ Dr Bonham posted on X.

‘That’s very bad, he seems to be in major trouble now.’

The ABC’s Antony Green says: ‘Labor’s chances of winning the seat are stronger than when counting began this morning’.

Our Political Editor Peter van Onselen says Bandt is a goner, short of a miracle turnaround.

A Teal MP who declared victory has been beaten by the man she turfed out of parliament in 2022.

Zoe Daniel, MP for Goldstein, in Melbourne’s inner south-east suburbs, lapped up the adulation of her adoring supporters as she declared victory on Saturday night.

‘Titanium’ by David Guetta blasted out as the crowd whooped and cheered while she walked to the stage.

When she got there she threw both hands in the air, declaring that ‘hope wins’.

‘I’m bullet-proof, nothing to lose,’ the lyrics rang out as Daniel danced like woman possessed.

Except she’s wasn’t bullet-proof – and she still had everything to lose.

Her Liberal challenger Tim Wilson pulled ahead by almost 350 votes shortly before 1.30pm.

Even before he’d nudged in front, our Political Editor Peter van Onselen praised the Liberal’s ‘remarkable comeback’.

‘Wilson will win this seat,’ he added.

And he was right: Sky News also called the seat for Wilson shortly after 2pm.

On Monday, even after she had walked back her victory claims, Daniel was still in the dancing mood.

The Teal MP shared a video of her all-female office dancing wildly to Chappell Roan’s Pink Pony Club.

‘It’s a resilience test that’s for sure,’ she captioned the video.

‘But no matter what, we will keep dancing.’

In 2022, Daniel became one of the first Teal independents elected after she defeated Wilson with a 13 per cent swing.

The Liberal Party’s Gisele Kapterian has taken the lead over Teal challenger Nicolette Boele in Bradfield.

She now leads by 44 votes.

More bad news for the Teals.

Amelia Hamer, the Liberal challenger in Kooyong is now the ‘slight favourite’ to win, according to Sky News election analyst Tom Connell.

Incumbent Teal MP Dr Monique Ryan declared victory on Saturday night but has since walked back those claims.

She leads by 1,001 votes – half of what it was on Monday.

MPs and candidates being run down by Liberals are looking for a miracle as postal votes are counted – and it could come when the AEC starts counting absentee votes.

Historically postal votes favour the Liberal Party, as we are seeing play out in this count across various seats.

If the likes of Bandt, Ryan and other Labor and teal independents are to find a way to win absentee votes are their only pathway to victory.

So expect the seats where postal votes are giving the Liberals good news in the wake of the disaster on Saturday to tighten back up again when the AEC moves onto absentee votes.

The big question seat by seat will be, are there enough absentee votes left to count to overcome the lead Liberals get on postals.

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has reportedly made a major mistake in a knife-edge seat.

Keith Wolahan, the first-term Liberal MP for Menzies in Melbourne’s outer-east, conceded graciously on Sunday after the seat east called for Labor’s Gabriel Ng.

AEC staff counted 8,817 first preference votes for Wolahan at a single booth on election night, but that figures dropped to 6,966 during a recount on Sunday.

The difference of 1,800 votes could put Wolahan back in the fight.

‘It was a transposition omission between one count and the next … as soon as we did the next count, it was fixed up,’ they added.

Julie Collins, Labor MP and Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, is suddenly in dangerous territory.

She is leading the race for the seat of Franklin in Tasmania by just 129 votes.

The Australian Election Commission has started to publish preference counts for Collins versus her independent challenger, Peter George.

The currents numbers are 72 per cent to George and just 28 per cent to Labor.

PVO, Daily Mail Australia’s Political Editor, believes it is ‘now very unlikely and she will hang on to win’.

Meanwhile, Teal independent Nicolette Boele has had her lead in Bradfield in Sydney’s north cut to just 22 votes over Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian.

Liberal Senator Maria Kovacic called for the party to ‘move back to the centre’ after its humiliating electoral defeat.

She also suggested the party needs to bring in gender quotas to boost the number of women in parliament.

It was a point echoed by former Liberal Senator Simon Birmingham who acknowledged that ‘quotas for women in parliament may be somewhat illiberal’.

‘But I struggle to think of any alternatives if there’s to be a new direction that truly demonstrates change and truly guarantees that the party will better reflect the composition of modern society,’ he wrote on LinkedIn.

‘Further, with parliamentary representation now at an all-time low, such quotas could and should be hard, fast and ambitious.’

Penny Wong has compared Adam Bandt to Peter Dutton as his political career threatens to go up in smoke.

Bandt is still very much in danger of losing his Melbourne seat, with a huge five per cent swing to Labor’s Sarah Witty saw Bandt’s primary vote drop to 41 per cent.

Senator Wong weighed in on Bandt’s and the Greens struggles in an interview with Karl Stefanovic, arguing that the Greens’ ‘culture war’ messaging did not resonate with voters.

‘Unfortunately, Adam Bandt, you know, in some ways is quite like Peter Dutton,’ she said.

‘It’s the same conflict. It’s the same. Frankly, sometimes quite aggressive and the same politics of protest and grievance.

‘I think Australians have comprehensively rejected that.’

Much of the Greens election campaign messaging focused on the Israel-Hamas conflict, the housing crisis, and climate change.

‘My suggestion to Adam Bandt is perhaps he should consider what the message (that) Australians sent to all of us in parliament,’ she said.

But Stefanovic then challenged Wong, highlighting that she had addressed a ‘culture wars’ issue herself — by declaring to Parliament that the Voice was inevitable in Australia just days before the election.

‘Look, you mentioned The Voice during the campaign as well, Penny. I listened to it and you clearly weren’t saying you were going to go back to it, but it was seized upon, as you know.’

Wong dodged the question, and doubled down on the country’s rejection of the ‘culture wars’.

‘People were concerned about Medicare. People were concerned about cost of living. People were concerned about tax cuts. People were concerned about schools and hospitals, bulk billing, and fee free TAFE,’ she said.

‘That’s what Australians wanted to see.

‘They weren’t interested in the Peter Dutton Liberal Party culture wars.’

There are still 16 seats up for grabs in the 150 seat House of Representatives. Currently the Labor Party has won 85 seats, the Coalition just 39 while there are 10 more held by crossbench independents including teals.

Interestingly not a single Greens lower house seat has been confirmed yet.

The story of the close counts since election night is that Liberal and National MPs and candidates seemingly on the canvas have fought back hard as postal votes strongly favour them.

Here are the 16 seats and what the state of play is:

Bean in the ACT: in a stunning turnaround as postal votes are being cast incumbent Labor MP David Smith has fallen behind independent challenger Jessica Price. If that trend continues Labor will lose the seat. Too close to call.

Bendigo: this regional Victorian seat is going to go to the Nationals, as postal vote counting has stripped the Labor incumbent Lisa Chesters of her 600 vote lead yesterday. She’s now more than 1,200 votes behind the Nationals who are likely to win as the postal trend continues to favour them.

Bradfield on Sydney’s north shore is the last non-teal seat Liberals hold in that neck of the woods, but the Liberals candidate hoping to take over from outgoing MP Paul Fletcher is behind as postal votes get counted.

But the race is tightening and the Liberal is now probably the favourite to win. The teal candidate, Nicole Boele (pictured, below), who hit the headlines during the campaign for all the wrong reasons is in front by only 450 votes, half what her lead was 24 hours ago. I would rather be the Lib than the teal given the trend, that’s for sure.

Bullwinkel is a new seat created in WA on the outskirts of Perth. It was a notional Labor seat by around 3.3 percent but its candidate is in a virtual dead heat right now with Liberal candidate Matt Moran (not the celebrity chef). Only 28 votes separate them.

But there are thousands of FIFO workers who did pre-polls votes outside the electorate and those votes haven’t yet been counted. Will their working class roots see them vote Labor, or as part of the mining community are they suspicious about a Labor Party that once tried to impose a mining tax? Too close to call right now.

Calwell is a traditionally safe Labor seat and will be held by the government unless the independent challenger can rise high enough in the preference flow to get past the Liberal candidate and benefit from their preferences. Right now it looks more likely Labor hangs on.

Flinders in Victoria is held by Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie and she is ahead of the Labor challenger by 3,100 votes. She will win.

Franklin Labor MP and minister Julie Collins needs to cross her fingers that preferences don’t bring her undone in what is a three cornered contest but that is now very unlikely and she will hang on to win.

Fremantle incumbent Labor MP Josh Wilson is in the fight of his political life to stave off independent challenger Kate Hulett. He’s just under 200 votes behind in the count but closing with postal votes and may overtake her. Too close to call.

Goldstein looks like being the most extraordinary showdown anywhere across the nation. Teal MP Zoe Daniel won the seat off of Liberal MP Tim Wilson back in 2022. Wilson re-contested it this time around and looked done on Saturday night as Daniel claimed victory before having to walk back her remarks the following day. Wilson was 1,800 votes behind but now only trails by 95 votes and is very likely to see the trend that brought him back into contention continue. A remarkable comeback. Wilson will win this seat.

Kooyong sees Teal MP Monique Ryan out in front of Liberal challenger Amelia Hamer (pictured, below), by just under 1,000 votes. But that margin has halved in 24 hours and Hamer is likely to overhaul the teal who claimed victory on Saturday night in what would be an embarrassing end to Ryan’s political career.

Longman is a Liberal held seat in Brisbane and the Liberal MP is narrowly by around 300 votes having taken the lead as postal votes are counted. He should win.

Melbourne is held by Greens leader Adam Bandt and he looks gone for all money. Down by more than 3,500 votes with postals seemingly going against him it would appear that Labor will regain the seat once held by Lindsay Tanner and the Greens will be searching for a new leader. The vote will tight, but not by enough for Bandt to comeback, short of a miracle. But Antony Green says otherwise, so I am going out on a limb contradicting the ABC’s election analyst calling this one for Labor!

Menzies in Melbourne is one of the last Liberal held metropolitan seats. Incumbent Keith Wolahan looked gone on election night but is clawing closer as postals get counted. He’s currently under 1,400 votes behind which means he’s in with a shot. Too close to call.

Monash is a Melbourne electorate held by veteran former Liberal Russell Broadbent. He lost preselection and contested the seat as an independent. Preference flows are all important here. If it’s a fight against the Labor Party the new Liberal candidate Mary Aldred will win. At the moment the Liberals are in front and expected to win.

Ryan was won by the Greens off the Liberals at the last election. It’s a seat previously held by former Liberal MP Andrew Lamming. Liberals hoped to win it back but it looks like the Greens will hang on, pending something dramatic happening with postal votes. If Greens do lose it won’t be the Liberal Party, it would be to Labor in the three cornered contest.

Wills is a Labor held seat the Greens had hoped to pick up but the incumbent MP is more than 2,800 votes in front and extending his lead. Labor will win.

If the Opposition is to make a fist of the next three years it will need to learn from the mistakes of the last, including what cost it dearly come election time.

Below are the seven deadly sins that resulted in the Coalition’s wipeout on election day:

The fight for Kooyong remains tight just hours after Dr Monique Ryan walked back her election night victory claim.

The Teal MP’s margin over Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer in the blue-ribbon electorate in Melbourne’s leafy inner east has shrunk to just 992 votes on Tuesday, with 78.4 per cent of the vote counted.

The former paediatric neurologist declared victory on Saturday night, with her husband holding up a ‘Kooyong we did it!’ sign before she addressed supporters.

But on Monday Ryan said she no longer felt safe in the contest, declaring the outcome was a ’50-50′ proposition.

‘Things were looking good on the night, in (election analyst) Antony Green we trusted,’ she told ABC Radio Melbourne on Monday morning.

‘But postal votes have been very much pro the conservative side so I think at this point Kooyong is very much in the air. It’s possible (I could lose).’

Daily Mail Australia’s political editor Peter van Onselen said if the postal vote trend favouring the Liberals continues, Dr Ryan will lose the seat.

‘That is the most likely scenario to play out, but it’s close and trends can change so the seat remains in doubt.’

He is certainly not afraid of making big political calls.

On Monday he predicted Greens Leader Adam Bandt was a ‘goner’, barring a miracle.

And now he has disagreed with the ABC’s legendary election analyst, Antony Green, who said on Monday he believes Bandt will hang on to his seat.

Read PVO’s incisive analysis here:

While it may well be one of the stupidest things to do when it comes to political psephology, I’m not sure I agree with Antony Green thatAdam Bandt will ‘probably win’ his inner city seat of Melbourne.

While I accept that it is possible, I still think it would take a minor miracle for Bandt to claw back enough votes in the postal count to overtake the Labor challenger.

Bandt is currently more than 3,500 votes behind the Labor candidate, and while I understand that the current flow on preferences which overwhelmingly is favouring Labor won’t continue – for reasons too boring to go into – the size of the current lead for Labor coupled with how we know the Liberals directed their how to vote cards should be enough to edge Bandt (pictured, below) out.

That’s because on primary votes Labor won just over 31 per cent and Liberals just under 19 per cent.

With Liberals preferencing Labor, that adds up to 50 per cent and therefore a win for Labor.

Yes not all Lib voters will preference the way they are told to, and a small showing of Lib volunteers handing out how to vote cards might mean some do their own thing and put Labor last.

But most will do what they are told to do. Added to that it really is hard to see One Nation voters putting the Greens ahead of Labor, and they got 2.3 per cent support.

That’s votes more likely to go to Labor than the Greens.

It will be close, much closer than it currently is in the count. But I’m sticking with Bandt to lose rather than full off a miracle comeback.

Green is about to retire. If he’s wrong and I’m right, maybe he’s already switched off his usually accurate thinking about the numbers.

If not, recognising the risks of contradicting the great man of election analysis, someone I have long respected and absolutely still do, maybe I need to take an early retirement myself.

Or make better use of having Greens mobile in my phone once he’s retired, to double check with the master what’s happening first next time, and never again contradict his judgement!

As we all know, Peter Dutton’s political career has gone up in smoke.

The former Opposition Leader is no doubt still dazed by his humiliating electoral drubbing.

But there is perhaps one thing that might still bring a smile to his face.

Greens leader Adam Bandt is still very much in danger of losing his Melbourne seat.

A huge five per cent swing to Labor’s Sarah Witty saw Bandt’s primary vote drop to 41 per cent.

This is despite the Greens leader prematurely declaring that he would hold on to his seat in a bizarre midnight address on Saturday.

The Australian Electoral Commission is currently re-throwing preferences to find a winner – as Bandt anxiously awaits his political future.

However, the ABC’s chief election analyst Antony Green insisted he could still hang on.

‘I’m not convinced (he will lose the seat),’ Green told 7.30 on Monday night.

‘If (the current flow of preferences) continues throughout the rest of the count, Labor will win that seat.

‘But I don’t think the rest of the votes will work that way. Adam Bandt will still probably win.’