Each week in MLB is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true… don’t be surprised!
Don’t be surprised … if Houston Astros OF Yordan Alvarez returns to top-10 hitter status
It wasn’t all too long ago that the fantasy world regarded Alvarez as a top-10 hitter and, even though we are only one week into the 2026 season, he sure looks like he’s that player again. Alvarez homered in the second game of the season against the Los Angeles Angels and then he homered in each of the first two games of the next series, against the Boston Red Sox. Alvarez has three multihit games out of six chances, with more walks than strikeouts. Welcome back, Alvarez! He’s a monster fantasy hitter in both points and roto/category formats.
Alvarez averaged 34 home runs and 96 RBIs from 2021 through 2024. Only six players hit more home runs during those four seasons, and New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge was the only one with a higher batting average than Alvarez, who hit .296. Alvarez neither stole many bases nor appeared in 150 games in any season, but there were few hitters who displayed his consistency in both power and plate discipline. His lost 2025 season due to a hand fracture and an ankle sprain should be quickly forgotten, although he did come at a multiround discount in this year’s ADP.
Some point to Alvarez as being riskier than most because he averaged only 135 games during his four-year span of greatness and then, last season, he missed 114 games. In fact, some view Alvarez, who is DH-only in many leagues (but not on ESPN) as being “brittle” — much like they do Angels OF Mike Trout or Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton. OK, so we cannot guarantee Alvarez (or Trout … or Buxton, LOL) bats 500 times this season. Perhaps they all fall short of 30 home runs, too. I choose to view 2025 as the aberrant Alvarez season. If someone in your league doesn’t believe in Alvarez, then go get him.
Don’t be surprised … if Los Angeles Dodgers DH/SP Shohei Ohtani really is a viable NL Cy Young Award candidate
While we all must agree Ohtani is awesome and the most special player on a baseball diamond, I must admit I haven’t always been so positive about his pitching. Well, to be clear, it has always been about expected volume. After all, Ohtani has made more than 23 starts in only one of his nine MLB seasons. While his career ERA after Tuesday’s impressive six innings of one-hit, shutout ball against the Cleveland Guardians sits at 2.96 (with a 1.07 WHIP and a solid 11.9 K/9), we must view him as a hitter first. Whatever we get from the mound is added fun.
Word is that Ohtani considers himself to be a pitcher first and, after earning a Rookie of the Year award and three MVP awards, he wants a Cy Young, too. Could this be the year? Again, I am skeptical that the mighty Dodgers, blessed with unique pitching depth and able to sleepwalk their way through the next six months in anticipation of October’s playoffs, would risk anything physically with any of their pitchers, especially their MVP leadoff hitter. Ohtani could force the issue. On a rate basis, he sure looks like a top-10 pitcher, perhaps not Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes, but odd things happen to even the best players sometimes.
Last season, I predicted the Dodgers would exercise extreme caution with Ohtani coming off Tommy John surgery, and he threw only 47 innings over 14 mostly truncated starts. His rate stats were terrific, but fantasy managers probably weren’t pleased overall. Ohtani made 28 starts for the 2022 Angels, throwing 166 innings. His 2.33 ERA and 1.01 WHIP (and 219 strikeouts) earned him the No. 4 AL Cy Young Award finish. Nobody was beating Detroit Tigers RHP Justin Verlander (1.75 ERA) that season. Perhaps nobody surpasses Skenes this year, but I bet Ohtani finally makes a run at it, perhaps even getting back to 166 innings again. It may be enough. Depending on your league’s rules, this may be his most valuable fantasy season — ever.
Don’t be surprised … if Arizona Diamondbacks SS Geraldo Perdomo is the team’s top fantasy option — again
What about Arizona’s uber-popular OF Corbin Carroll, you say? It’s a fair point. Carroll may have MVP awards or even the Hall of Fame in his future. Perdomo was never supposed to be a great fantasy option and then last season he hit .290 with 20 home runs, 100 RBIs, 27 stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts over 161 games. Carroll was great last season, hitting 31 home runs, stealing 32 bases and scoring 107 runs … and Perdomo still outscored him in ESPN leagues by 70 points. Some of it was volume, but mainly it is about plate discipline. Why can’t this occur again?
Perhaps this doesn’t matter, because both Perdomo and Carroll are universally rostered, but I read and heard all spring from fantasy analysts how Perdomo “could never do this again” and I wanted to say, um, why not? Perdomo hits third for the Diamondbacks, right after Carroll. He homered off Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the opening game, perhaps a reminder that his stunning power from 2025 was legitimate. The plate discipline and speed are still for real.
I won’t assume Perdomo finishes fifth among all hitters in ESPN points again this season (Carroll finished 14th), but I expect both of them to finish well among the top 20. Yeah, Perdomo is for real, and perhaps (as he went five rounds after Carroll in ESPN ADP) he’s still underrated.
Don’t be surprised … if Pirates OF Oneil Cruz hits .259 this season
That number may seem awfully specific, but that’s what Cruz hit in 2024. Last season, he hit .200. There’s a big difference, obviously, between .259 and .200. The tantalizing Cruz boasts extreme raw power and rotten plate discipline, but when he does make contact, baseballs often fly very far. One went far on Tuesday, when the lefty-hitting Cruz blasted one 444 feet off Cincinnati Reds LHP Brandon Williamson. On Tuesday, Cruz launched a three-run shot 407 feet off Reds LHP Andrew Abbott. Hmm, this may be significant.
Cruz hit only one home run off left-handed pitching in 2025. Today, he has two! In fact, one could have easily made the case that this player, intriguing as he is, should never face lefties. He was 11-for-108 off them last season (.102/.224/.176) for a .400 OPS. Yes, a .159 BABIP played a role, but Cruz looked awful against lefties. His .178 career batting average against lefties is the 23rd worst for any qualified batter this decade. A handful of plate appearances against a few Reds lefties this week changes little, yet we can be optimistic.
Meanwhile, the former shortstop was moved to center field late in 2024 and, honestly, he looks like the worst center fielder in the sport. He has already made several embarrassing plays this season, including a few that cost Skenes mightily in the opener. One could argue that Cruz should be in the minor leagues learning how to play the outfield, too. However, that doesn’t seem likely.
Look, hitters constantly adjust their mechanics and strategy and perhaps Cruz, with a pair of homers off lefties in the first week, did as well. After all, he hit a far more palatable .224/.266/.420 against left-handed pitching (six of his 21 home runs) in 2024. That’s still bad, but not nearly as atrocious.
I admit I don’t have fantasy shares of Cruz anywhere. He struck out more than 30% of the time in both of the past two seasons. He has yet to approach 30 home runs in a season, nor has he scored 75 runs in any season, though that is not all his fault. I’ve faded him, but that doesn’t mean he can’t hit .259 overall again, even with all these strikeouts. Still, I recommend that, armed with this recent news about his homers off lefties, you try to trade him.