For nearly half a century, terrorism has cast a shadow over Turkiye’s political, social and economic life. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Syria, Iraq and Iran have destabilised the region through separatist violence. The PKK’s dissolution in May 2025 marks a defining moment, not only ending armed conflict but also opening a transformation with the potential to reshape the region’s future.
As unresolved conflicts, rising migration pressures and energy rivalries heighten global uncertainty, Turkiye’s decisive steps offer the prospect of lasting peace, secure energy corridors and sustainable prosperity for Turkiye and the wider region.
The human and economic cost
The human and economic toll of terrorism was staggering. Nearly 50,000 lives were lost, and 1.1 million people were displaced during the decades-long campaign of violence from the early 1980s to the 2020s.
Terrorism was not only a security issue but also an economic and social burden for the country. Beyond the human tragedy, the economic cost was equally devastating. Official assessments estimate $1.8 trillion in direct counterterrorism spending and more than $3 trillion when lost growth, investment, tourism and infrastructure damage are taken into account.
Peace, on the other hand, promises a reversal. Analyses show that eliminating terrorism-related costs could trigger a substantial rise in per capita income in the southeast over the medium term. In addition, a $14bn programme of 198 projects through 2028 aims to create around 570,000 jobs, focusing on agriculture, tourism and private investment.
Turkiye’s path to peace
What sets Turkiye’s conflict settlement apart is its focus on inclusive and participatory citizenship. Rather than relying on external mediation, this is the first peacebuilding effort conducted entirely through a nation’s democratic institutions, with the parliament leading the initiative.
Historically, following the emergence of nation-states in the 20th century, many countries confronted secessionist movements that often evolved into terrorism over time. For example, the Good Friday Agreement, which ended “the Troubles,” was achieved through cooperation between the British and Irish governments, with mediation by the United States and Canada, and was finalised within seven years.
In Spain’s case, the peace process with ETA was overseen by the International Contact Group and prominent figures such as Kofi Annan, supported by Norway, Switzerland, and France, and concluded within six years. Similarly, Colombia’s peace accord with FARC, reached in four years, was facilitated by Norway and Cuba as guarantor states.
In contrast, the period between President Erdogan’s initial call in late 2024 and the PKK’s dissolution announcement in May 2025 – symbolised by the organisation’s burning of weapons to demonstrate its goodwill – spanned less than a year, a pace unmatched in the modern history of peace processes.
As Professor Ira William Zartman noted in his “ripeness theory,” peacemaking becomes possible at the “ripe moment”. Turkiye’s rapid progress is remarkable; yet the real test lies in how comprehensively the settlement is implemented.
Crossroads of power
Turkiye’s geographic position at the intersection of Europe, Asia and the Middle East makes its stability crucial for global energy security. Turkiye today stands at the centre of a broader geopolitical arc stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean through the Middle East to the Caucasus and the Black Sea, serving as a unique bridge of connectivity and power. The region surrounding Turkiye contains about 65 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and 45 percent of its natural gas reserves.
Key energy corridors through Turkiye include the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP, delivering 16 billion cubic metres annually to Europe), TurkStream (31.5 billion cubic metres to southeastern Europe), and the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline (carrying 1.2 million barrels per day). This strategic position has also made these corridors prime targets for terrorist attacks.
Since the 1980s, the PKK has conducted over 60 major attacks on Turkiye’s critical energy infrastructure, causing multibillion-dollar losses and directly threatening European energy security. The Kirkuk–Ceyhan oil pipeline was sabotaged in 2005, 2010, 2013, and 2015, repeatedly disrupting crude oil flows to Mediterranean markets. In 2008, an attack on the BTC pipeline forced a complete shutdown for weeks, suspending a key Caspian oil corridor to Europe. The Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum gas pipeline was hit in 2012 and 2015, exposing vulnerabilities in Europe’s natural gas supply. Even NATO’s fuel pipeline network was attacked in 2012 and 2017, demonstrating the strategic scale of the threat. As Europe works to secure energy routes, a terror-free Turkiye has become essential for European energy independence, requiring active cooperation from European and NATO allies.
Beyond energy, Turkiye continues to advance major projects that strengthen its position as a transportation corridor. The Development Road project, expected to carry 40 million tonnes of cargo annually by 2050, will link the Gulf to Europe through Turkiye and provide a faster, more cost-effective alternative to the Suez Canal. Moreover, the Middle Corridor already serves as a reliable land bridge, delivering 4.5 million tonnes of cargo in 2024 and projected to exceed 6 million in 2025.
Beyond efficiency, stability along these routes enhances investor confidence, strengthens Europe’s diversification strategy, and consolidates Turkiye’s role as a reliable energy and transportation hub uniting East and West. Consequently, a stable and terror-free Turkiye is pivotal not only for the regional economy but also for the global order.
Collective responsibility
The European Union welcomed the PKK’s dissolution as a significant opportunity, expressing its readiness to support the peace process. High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, called it “one of the rare pieces of good news from the region,” while the European Parliament’s rapporteur on Turkiye, Nacho Sanchez Amor, described the peace call as a “historic step”.
The disbandment of the PKK – recognised as a terrorist organisation by both the EU and the United States – along with its proxies in Syria, namely the YPG and SDF, is expected to strengthen Turkiye’s democracy, help meet EU expectations, and accelerate the country’s accession process. For NATO, of which Turkiye is a longstanding southeastern anchor, acting in the spirit of alliance and upholding the principle of pacta sunt servanda (agreements must be kept) is essential. The broader international community should support this initiative and refrain from backing proxy structures that undermine it.
Breaking barriers
The foremost challenge is ensuring that all PKK members and affiliated groups fully comply with the dissolution process, especially by adhering to the March 10, 2025 agreement, under which YPG/SDF groups agreed to integrate into the Syrian Armed Forces and operate under Damascus’s authority. It is evident that failure to disarm and integrate would seriously undermine regional security, with direct consequences for Europe’s stability.
Another destabilising factor is Israel. Its continued support for the YPG/SDF jeopardises the dissolution process and fuels armed separatism along Turkiye’s borders. Beyond that, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has shaken regional stability, while Israel has intensified its military actions in Syria and Lebanon, carried out operations in Iran, and launched strikes on targets in Tunisia, Yemen and even Qatar during ceasefire talks. These actions breach international law and threaten the fragile balance that is only now being restored. Israel’s continued aggression thus represents a major threat to the security of both the political and energy order.
A new dawn
Decades of chronic fear, pain and division could now give way to solidarity and prosperity. The road ahead will not be free of challenges, yet political unity, social cohesion, and international cooperation can turn this moment into a truly historic opportunity. A terror-free Turkiye safeguards vital energy and trade routes while offering a vision of regional confidence and shared progress.
This transformation carries profound implications for the region stretching from Europe to the Caucasus and the Middle East. By removing the threat of terror, disruption, and new waves of migration, Turkiye strengthens the reliability of the critical supply corridors on which Europe depends, attracts greater international investment in energy and logistics projects, and creates the conditions for its neighbours to build on stability rather than conflict. If pursued with determination, this path will pave the way for a future defined by a sustainable security architecture and lasting peace grounded in mutual benefit.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.