The battle to crown the WNBA’s 29th champion begins when the 2025 playoffs tip off Sunday (1 p.m. ET on ESPN).
On paper, it looks like a three-team race: You have the defending champ New York Liberty, who still have star power — Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones — from last year’s title run. Then there are A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces, who look better poised to rekindle their dynasty than at any point since they won it all for the second straight time in 2023. And, last but not least, there are the Minnesota Lynx — the clear-cut best team of the regular season — playing for their first championship with MVP front-runner Napheesa Collier.
There’s a whopping 84% chance one of those three teams lifts the trophy, based on the implied probability of ESPN BET odds. That leaves just 16% between the remaining postseason squads: the Atlanta Dream, Phoenix Mercury, Seattle Storm, Golden State Valkyries and Indiana Fever — but although it’s a long shot, it’s still statistically possible one of those five could crash the championship party.
Let’s make the case for why each of those five teams could make a deeper run than expected.
Note: “Elo simulated odds” are based on Elo ratings, which focus on a team’s game-by-game results, with an emphasis on recent form. “SRS rating” is Basketball Reference’s Simple Rating System (SRS), which is essentially a schedule-adjusted points per game differential.
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ESPN BET odds: +1000 (7.8% implied prob.)
Elo simulated odds: 24.1%
SRS rating: +6.5 (second)
Offensive rating: 110.5 (second)
Defensive rating: 100.5 (second)
Best player: G Allisha Gray (7.6 wins added per 44 games)
Why they can win: If not for preseason priors, the Dream very well could have made it a four-team instead of three-team conversation for the title. Based on Elo rating simulations, Atlanta (17-5 since the All-Star break) has a higher chance to win it than New York (11-11 since the break). The Dream also rank second only to the powerhouse Lynx in offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating and SRS rating.
Although upsets elsewhere in the bracket would do Atlanta a huge favor, a likely matchup with the Aces looms in the semifinals — and that means trying to contain Wilson, who averaged a dominant 30 points (on 54% shooting) and 11 boards against Atlanta as Las Vegas went 3-0 in the season series.
The Dream have the typical basketball overachiever’s dilemma: Their regular-season success was built on depth, which matters less in the playoffs. But even though Atlanta doesn’t have the star power of the top three contenders, a championship run requires contributors beyond the household names — and no team has a greater wealth of those than the Dream.
Key stat: Six of Atlanta’s seven players with the most minutes had an estimated RAPTOR rating of +1.5 or higher during the regular season, the most of any team in the league.
ESPN BET odds: +1600 (5.1% implied prob.)
Elo simulated odds: 1.4%
SRS rating: +2.5 (fifth)
Offensive rating: 105.9 (seventh)
Defensive rating: 102.5 (fifth)
Best player: F Alyssa Thomas (7.9 wins added per 44 games)
Why they can win: The Mercury’s first-round matchup against the Liberty certainly isn’t ideal. Phoenix was quickly dispatched in last year’s first round by Minnesota, which went on to go the distance in the Finals with New York, and that might feel like a comparison for this year’s series by proxy. But the Mercury’s home-court advantage could be the difference in this one.
The Mercury also went 3-1 in the season series against the Liberty — all games Stewart started — providing hope that Phoenix can make it out of the opening round and take its chances against the rest of the field with Thomas leading the way.
Key stat: The Mercury held Stewart at or below her season-long output for points, rebounds and assists in the teams’ four-game regular-season series.
ESPN BET odds: +6000 (1.4% implied prob.)
Elo simulated odds: 0.5%
SRS rating: +2.0 (seventh)
Offensive rating: 104.5 (eighth)
Defensive rating: 101.9 (third)
Best player: G Skylar Diggins (6.5 wins added per 44 games)
Why they can win: The Storm will need to lean on their defense in order to win their first-round matchup against the Aces. Gabby Williams and Ezi Magbegor have been among the best statistical defenders in the league; only the Mercury’s Natasha Mack has a higher block rate than Magbegor’s 7.2% mark this season, and Williams has the league’s second-highest qualified steal rate (3.6%). The team also holds opponents to 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than the league average.
Seattle did split the season series with Las Vegas (2-2), so at the very least, it can make things unpleasant for Wilson & Co.
Key stat: The Storm lead the league with a plus-4.2 turnover margin per 100 possessions, well clear of the second-ranked Lynx (+2.5).
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ESPN BET odds: +10000 (0.9% implied prob.)
Elo simulated odds: 2.3%
SRS rating: +2.5 (sixth)
Offensive rating: 108.5 (third)
Defensive rating: 104.2 (seventh)
Best player: C-F Aliyah Boston (7.5 wins added per 44 games)
Why they can win: No Caitlin Clark means the Fever will face an uphill battle — and that’s before we factor in all the other key players they have lost for the season. The limits of Indiana’s impressive depth will continue to be tested in a tough first-round matchup against Atlanta.
It bears mentioning that the Fever went 2-2 against the Dream during the regular season. Indiana also has the third-best offensive rating in the league, led by the scoring of Kelsey Mitchell (21.1 PPG over the past month), Boston (14.7) and a balanced attack around them. If the Fever are going to knock off Atlanta, they will need to lean on the post-Clark offense that Stephanie White & Co. have forged without their most essential player for most of the season.
Key stat: Since Aug. 15, only the Aces (116.6) and Dream (114.6) have higher offensive ratings than the Fever (111.9).
ESPN BET odds: +10000 (0.9% implied prob.)
Elo simulated odds: 0.8%
SRS rating: +1.5 (eighth)
Offensive rating: 103.9 (ninth)
Defensive rating: 102.1 (fourth)
Best player: G Veronica Burton (7.3 wins added per 44 games)
Why they can win: We’re not going to sugarcoat it: The Valkyries’ reward for being the first true expansion team to make the playoffs in WNBA history is a very unlikely path through the bracket. The Lynx swept the four-game regular-season series against the Valkyries. But although Golden State will have its difficulties against Minnesota, the Valkyries rank third in defensive rating over the past month and fourth on offense. The coaching of Natalie Nakase gives the Valkyries a potential advantage as well.
Key stat: Over the past month, the Valkyries’ plus-4.9 net rating ranks fifth in the WNBA, ahead of fellow playoff teams Seattle, New York and Phoenix.