As the day breaks on Selection Sunday, three teams are “locks” to be a No. 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. That would be Duke, Arizona and Michigan. All three have strong cases to be the No. 1 overall seed, but it appears that the Blue Devils have the inside track to be the first team to hear their name called when the bracket is released.
The next talking point heading into Sunday — outside of a historically weak bubble — will be what team earns the final No. 1 seed alongside those three teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. There are three teams in contention to join Duke, Michigan and Arizona. The team projected to be the final No. 1 seed is Florida, the reigning national champions.
Houston and UConn will also be under consideration to be the final No. 1 seed.
College basketball conference tournaments 2026: Last five automatic bids to NCAA Tournament determined Sunday
Cameron Salerno
How will the top line look when the 2026 March Madness bracket is revealed? We will find out when the full field of 68 is revealed Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on the 2026 NCAA Tournament Selection Show live on CBS.
Keep on reading for CBS Sports’ latest Bracketology top seed projections along with a breakdown of how our college basketball experts would vote if they were members of the committee.
NCAA Tournament Bracketology projection
Here’s how CBS Sports has projected the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Check out the complete Bracketology page here.
NCAA Tournament expert picks
Here’s how our college basketball staff would vote if they were on the selection committee.
Gary Parrish: Duke first, then Michigan — with a catch
In my head, this is simple. Duke swept the ACC trophies and is 32-2 on Selection Sunday with a 17-2 record in Quadrant 1. The only team that could possibly match that is Michigan via a victory over Purdue in Sunday’s championship game of the Big Ten Tournament. But even if Michigan gets to 32-2 with a 17-2 record in Quadrant 1, Duke will still have a neutral-court win over the Wolverines that serves as a de facto tie-breaker with resumes this close.
So, yeah, Duke will be the No. 1 overall seed.
Michigan will come next as long as it beats Purdue. If not, swap Arizona and Michigan (but keep them in the same regions). And, either way, Florida deserves the fourth No. 1 seed. The only other options are Houston and UConn. And neither Houston nor UConn won their conference’s regular-season titles nor tournaments. So, for that reason and more, Florida, the outright regular season champ of the sport’s best conference, according to the NET, should get the fourth No. 1 seed.
Matt Norlander: The real intrigue is down the bracket
No drama on the 1-line two years in a row. There’s hardly much debate about the No. 1 overall seed as well, although Arizona does present a compelling case that I think can put them at No. 2 in the pecking order. The real intrigue will instead come with whether UConn or Houston is the top No. 2 seed, which teams fill out the rest of the 2-line and how the West Region gets populated with the Nos. 2 and the Nos. 4 (because Gonzaga should be the No. 3 in the West).
David Cobb: Why Michigan can’t jump Duke
The race for the No. 1 overall seed is mostly for bragging rights as the top three teams have been locked into these regions for a while now. There isn’t necessarily a huge competitive advantage to be gained by being No. 1 overall, but it’s a nice distinction to earn, and Duke is the frontrunner. Because of its head-to-head win over Michigan, the Blue Devils own a nice “tiebreaker” of sorts, which is applicable in a situation like this where the margins are so tight.
Arizona has a compelling case, too. But the Wildcats lag slightly behind in predictive metrics. As for the final No. 1 seed, it was up for grabs when Florida lost in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament. But neither Houston or UConn could capitalize, which means it should stay in the hands of the reigning national champions.
Cameron Salerno: Why I like Arizona over Michigan
I lean Duke for No. 1 overall and then I would put Arizona over Michigan as the second No. 1 seed. The Wildcats have 12 wins over ranked teams, which is the most entering the NCAA Tournament in the AP poll era. They had the most impressive conference tournament run of anybody, dispatching Iowa State and then Houston, which may be the top No. 2 seed later this evening. That should all be rewarded.
As for the final No. 1 seed, it shouldn’t be that much of a debate after Houston and UConn lost. Florida is going to be the final No. 1 seed. The Gators have played as well as anyone the last two months.
Chip Patterson: Another vote for Arizona over Michigan
UConn and Houston got further in their respective conference tournaments than Florida, but without that championship game win the tables might not have tilted far enough to shake up the order at the top of the seed list. The regional placement of Duke, Arizona and Michigan seems to have been determined for weeks at this point, though the order was going to be left to the final data points on the resume. Michigan being at the No. 2 or No. 3 spot would not be a surprise, but Arizona’s performances against both Iowa State and Houston in the Big 12 Tournament could give them an edge in the committee room.
Isaac Trotter: Consensus lays out the top 4
Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida are the top four teams in order on KenPom and Bart Torvik, which are two of the predictive metrics that the committee weighs for seeding. Following suit with college basketball’s Bible makes far too much sense for the committee.