Middle East wars no longer have the same power to disrupt energy supplies as they did in 1973 when Arab producers slapped an embargo on the West, generating a great inflation and recession.
Nevertheless, Israel’s audacious assault on Iran’s nuclear capability changes the market dynamics.
The dollar bounced on the foreign exchanges, reversing a backlash against Trump’s tariff and tax bedlam which has driven it down 8 per cent this year.
In times of trouble, fund managers flee for safety. Dollar assets, which offer a decent yield, come back into fashion. Gold, the ultimate safe haven, climbed to $3410 an ounce, continuing a remarkable run.
Nowadays, just one-fifth of Gulf energy production passes through the Strait of Hormuz with most output heading to Asia. Self-sufficiency of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the United States means that one of the world’s largest energy consumers is no longer directly impacted.
Nevertheless, with airports across the Middle East temporarily closed, shipping in danger and the US doubling down on security at its Middle East bases the threat to energy supplies is very real.
Audacious: Israel’s assault on Iran’s nuclear capability changes the market dynamics
The power of conflict to do harm to the international economy and domestic consumers was illustrated by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Britain is not immune. Supplies of LNG come from Qatar, which is bang in the middle of the war zone. We are also connected to Norway through the Langeled and other pipelines.
Oil market turmoil, which could possibly stretch out for weeks, illustrates why the Labour Government is wrong to have halted the issue of new North Sea drilling licences.
Yes, eventually wind power, solar and new nuclear may keep the lights burning and the data centres running. In the meantime, the nation’s energy security and the cost of power for homes and factories largely are at the mercy of geopolitics.
Keir Starmer’s Government has reason to be fearful. Instead of gesture politics on Israel-Gaza, it needs to focus on the economic consequences of war.
Surging energy prices are but the latest uncertainty as the fallout from trade disputes continues. UK public finances already are stretched because of a botched budget and spending review. The attacks on Iran can only make it worse.
Good health
There can be only one good outcome from the ding-dong battle for healthcare property group Assura. That is victory for UK rival Primary Health Properties (PHP).
It is not just narrow fiduciary duty that should be guiding Assura’s board, which has expressed preference for a KKR deal. Assura and PHP work with the NHS and patients, and should continue to do so.
Private equity involvement in social care in the UK has been disastrous. Blackstone’s ownership of Southern Cross ended in 2011 with the property sold, local authorities squeezed and families having to foot elevated bills for their loved ones.
Long shareholders, and especially BlackRock, which owns 10 per cent of both PHP and Assura, must see off KKR and back a merger that would protect stakeholders and keep the UK-health group listed in London.
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