Sometimes, when I poll Oscar voters about the films and performances they plan to nominate, they turn the tables on me.
“What do you want to happen?” they ask.
Maybe they’re expecting me to advocate for an underseen movie or steer them toward a performance that hasn’t gotten its flowers. Usually, though, my answer is simple: I want them to surprise me. Don’t adhere to the conventional wisdom. Take a chance on things that no one would expect to be nominated.
That goes double for this season, which has remained fairly fluid after back-to-back years when the names of the best picture winner and many of the acting victors felt engraved on statuettes months in advance. No single film has yet dominated this season and many still have a plausible path to victory at the Oscars. It’s fun!
That’s why I hope that more surprises are in store when the Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday, even though part of my job is predicting exactly which way the wind is going to blow. Here is what I project will be nominated (with my predictions in bold) in the top six Oscar categories after taking into account industry chatter and the nominations already bestowed by influential precursors like the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America. I hope I’m right, but I’d enjoy being wrong.
At the beginning of the season, it felt like the five strongest best picture contenders came from what I called the A-B-C-D-E tier, since they happened to begin with the first five letters of the alphabet.
I still expect those films to claim half of the best-picture slots, though one of them has slipped somewhat. The four that are best positioned remain “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “Conclave” and “Emilia Pérez,” with their alphabet buddy “Dune: Part Two” knocked down a few pegs for failing to score a DGA nomination.
After conquering the box office and earning a hefty nomination haul at the SAG Awards, “Wicked” should extend its magic touch with the Oscars; ditto “A Complete Unknown,” which took top nominations from the actors and directors guilds, indicating a broad swath of industry support. The wild and gory “The Substance” is the furthest thing from a traditional Oscar contender, but Demi Moore’s strong campaign has helped to nudge it over the line. And two smaller but well-liked films, “A Real Pain” and “Sing Sing,” ought to claim the final slots on the strength of some sure-to-be-nominated performances.
This category typically goes 4 for 5 with the directors guild, and I project that the auteurs likeliest to make both nomination lists are the Golden Globe winner Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”), Sean Baker (“Anora”), Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”) and Edward Berger (“Conclave”). The fifth and most vulnerable DGA nominee is James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”), who has never been nominated for a best director Oscar despite making Oscar players like “Walk the Line” and “Ford v Ferrari.” If Mangold doesn’t make the cut, then who might?
The academy’s directors branch often turns a blind eye to blockbuster filmmaking, so if Jon M. Chu (“Wicked”) and Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) couldn’t pass muster with the far friendlier directors guild, you shouldn’t expect them to pop up here. This branch is far more partial to international directors, so I expect the European contingent to turn out for the French auteur Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”), though you can’t count out Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine as Light”), RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”) or Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”).
Best Actor
Four best actor contenders have marched through this season in lock step, picking up nominations from the actors guild and the Golden Globes as well as BAFTA, the British awards group that has a significant member overlap with the American academy.
Those four men are Adrien Brody, whose performance in “The Brutalist” as an immigrant architect won him the Globe for best actor in a drama; Timothée Chalamet, who plays Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown”; Colman Domingo as an incarcerated actor in “Sing Sing”; and Ralph Fiennes as a conflicted cardinal in “Conclave.” They’re in.
The fifth SAG nomination went to Daniel Craig, who could earn his first Oscar nomination for playing the love-struck protagonist of “Queer” even though his BAFTA countrymen snubbed him: The British group’s list of six instead included the “Heretic” star Hugh Grant as well as Sebastian Stan, for playing Donald Trump in “The Apprentice.” Stan’s got a shot, but I give Craig the edge.
After delivering a knockout speech at the Golden Globes, Demi Moore feels like this category’s new front-runner for her role in “The Substance.” She’ll face competition from two actresses who hail from stronger best picture contenders: Mikey Madison (“Anora”) and Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), the latter of whom could become the first openly trans actress to earn an Oscar nomination.
Few contenders close on as strong a note as the “Wicked” star Cynthia Erivo, who gets to belt “Defying Gravity” in her final scene, though it does feel like her character is only getting started and voters may be tempted to wait until the sequel for her just reward. Still, I think Erivo is safe, and this season’s real blood bath will be for the fifth best actress slot.
Former winners Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) and Kate Winslet (“Lee”) have been stumping for months, but their films have no momentum. Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”) is peaking at the right time with her recent SAG nomination, but the academy can be awfully snobby sometimes and may prove immune to the “Baywatch” actress’s bid for respectability. (Remember when Jennifer Lopez was denied a nomination for her career-best turn in “Hustlers”?)
With that in mind, the final slot may come down to the Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres, who just won a surprise Golden Globe for “I’m Still Here”; the perennial Oscar favorite Nicole Kidman, so memorably exposed in “Babygirl”; and Marianne Jean-Baptiste, whose tetchy performance in “Hard Truths” has won all the major critics’ prizes. Since BAFTA went with Jean-Baptiste, that’s who I’m picking. Still, this race will be close.
Best Supporting Actor
Could this category host a “Succession” reunion? Kieran Culkin, star of “A Real Pain,” has been picking up supporting actor prizes all season and is considered a mortal lock to be nominated, while his TV co-star Jeremy Strong has earned nominations from the actors guild, the Golden Globes and BAFTA for his performance as Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice.” Strong hails from a much more underseen film, but it’s a flashy role and he’s picked up the precursors he needed, so I’m predicting him to make the cut.
Two other men who have nabbed all of those crucial precursors are Edward Norton, appealing as Pete Seeger in “A Complete Unknown,” and Yura Borisov, the love-struck henchman in “Anora,” but who else might make it? In a field of strong contenders that includes Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”), Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) and Jonathan Bailey (“Wicked”), I’m projecting a nomination for Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”), whose film is peaking at exactly the right time.
Best Supporting Actress
Two contenders feel like sure bets in this very uncertain category: Zoe Saldaña, who won the Golden Globe for her performance in “Emilia Pérez,” and Ariana Grande, who proved to be a delightful comic actress in “Wicked.” They’re also the only two supporting actresses of the season to earn the golden trifecta of nominations from the actors guild, BAFTA and the Golden Globes.
That leaves three spots totally up for grabs. Two contenders scored with SAG but couldn’t find purchase with the Golden Globes or BAFTA: Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) and Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”). Though both deliver strong performances, I’d instead bet on the surging Jamie Lee Curtis, who earned both SAG and BAFTA nominations for her performance in “The Last Showgirl.” Whether or not the academy ultimately nominates Pamela Anderson for that film, her high-profile campaign buoys Curtis, who is already Oscar-vetted.
That leaves four more contenders for two remaining slots, and I’d expect them to be filled by stars who appear in best picture candidates. One could be the “Substance” star Margaret Qualley, though she missed out on SAG and BAFTA nominations and has seemingly been eclipsed by her co-star, Moore, who gets to do more of the movie’s emotional heavy lifting. Instead, pencil in Isabella Rossellini, who has a small role in “Conclave” but a big presence. If she doesn’t score her first Oscar nomination at the age of 72, then when would she?
If voters really take to “The Brutalist,” Felicity Jones may be our final nominee, but we already know the industry adores “Emilia Pérez,” so watch out for Selena Gomez: Netflix has scored surprise supporting nods in the past for the likes of Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”) and Marina de Tavira (“Roma”), and Gomez has been hustling hard all season. The streamer is selling the stars of “Emilia Pérez” as a tight-knit trio, and since Saldaña and Gascón are bound to get in, the door is open for Gomez to dance through, too.