The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft is solidifying after 15 weeks of the 2025 season. Only five teams have at least a 1% chance at landing the top pick, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections. So we called on our NFL reporters and analysts to size up each of those bottom-tier franchises again after taking a look at midseason.
Our NFL Nation reporters looked at what went wrong for each team to get them in this position. Seth Walder used FPI to make sense of each teams’ chances in their final three games. Dan Graziano rated each team’s likelihood of trading the No. 1 pick on a 1-10 scale. And finally, Jordan Reid spun it forward and suggested one prospect each front office could consider if it kept the top selection.
Let’s start with the Raiders, who currently have the best odds at the first pick.
Jump to a team:
CLE | LV | NYG | NYJ | TEN
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 37.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 92.7%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Las Vegas has been a complete mess on offense. Since firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, the Raiders have scored only 31 points in three games. They totaled 75 yards in a 31-0 loss to the Eagles this past Sunday. Quarterback Geno Smith has regressed over the course of the season, and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has been underwhelming. The offensive line’s inability to hold protection or create space hasn’t helped either player. The Raiders are currently 22nd in pass block win rate (61.0%) and tied for 18th in run block win rate (70.6%). — Ryan McFadden
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They aren’t favored in any games but don’t make the mistake of thinking that the Raiders have the No. 1 pick locked up. Their Week 17 game is against the Giants, who are fourth on this list, and Week 18 is against an already eliminated Chiefs team. Who knows what that game will look like. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
1. All of these grades will be based on whether the team likes the top QB prospect — Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza or whomever else it could become — enough to justify taking him No. 1. The Raiders desperately need a real, long-term solution at quarterback and would be foolish to let an opportunity to draft one slip past them. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza. Adding Smith as a veteran presence backfired. The Raiders desperately need a franchise QB, and this year’s Heisman Trophy winner could fill that void as the top option in this class. His toughness, poise and accuracy are traits that can translate quickly. The franchise hasn’t selected a QB in Round 1 since 2007, when it took Jamarcus Russell with the top pick. — Reid
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 20.3%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 89.3%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Offense. For the second straight season, the Browns have one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL. Cleveland is tied with Tennessee for the lowest mark in yards per play (4.3) this season. The Browns are last in offensive EPA, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and have cycled through three different starting quarterbacks — Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. But the issues span beyond the QB, from an oft-injured and underperforming offensive line to a lack of playmakers on the outside. — Daniel Oyefusi
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They are most certainly not favored in any games. The Browns face the Bills, Steelers and Bengals, a high degree of difficulty stretch. FPI favors Cleveland’s opponents by at least 8.5 points in each of those matchups, though it remains to be seen what the state of the Bengals is in Week 18. Still, Browns fans hoping to see their team lose out have a good chance of that happening.— Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
4. Anyone who tells you they know what the Browns are going to do at QB next season is lying. They have two rookies (Sanders and Gabriel), Deshaun Watson still on the roster at a price of $46 million and two first-round picks in 2026. If they fall in love with Mendoza, I feel confident they’d take him here. If they aren’t in love with any QB prospect and feel good about Sanders, Gabriel and/or Watson for one more season, then they could trade it and address the problem with even more draft capital in 2027. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Mendoza. I don’t think Gabriel and Sanders have shown enough this season to stop the Browns from continuing to find their long-term answer under center. This season, the Browns are 30th in passing yards per game (171.9) and last in Total QBR (24.6). Arguably the most consistent passer in this class, Mendoza has the potential to bring stability to a franchise that has lacked it since Baker Mayfield was traded in 2022. — Reid
2:18
Stephen A. blames Stefanski for not developing Browns QBs
Stephen A. Smith calls out Browns coach Kevin Stefanski for refusing to develop other quarterbacks while the team tries Shedeur Sanders at QB.
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 18.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88.9%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Lack of complementary football. There have been games when the Titans’ defense played well but eventually wore down after being on the field too much because the offense couldn’t sustain drives. Tennessee is currently 28th in time of possession and second worst in total yards per game (250.5). But the offense has given the defense a chance to close out games, like in Week 11 (a 16-13 loss to Houston). It didn’t happen. — Turron Davenport
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
They aren’t favored in any games by FPI, but there are a couple of winnable games. The Titans are getting the Chiefs fresh off their playoff elimination and without quarterback Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL). Will Kansas City pack it in in a meaningless game? It wouldn’t be that shocking. And though the Saints are playing well, that’s not a sure-fire loss for Tennessee in Week 17. But Week 18 could easily be a loss if the game is meaningful for the Jaguars’ playoff hopes. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
9. I’d be shocked if Tennessee took a QB at No. 1 two years in a row. It has never happened. The only reason it’s not a 10 is because a new coach could decide he’s not sold on rookie quarterback Cam Ward. Though, why take the job if that’s the case? This front office, led by first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi, drafted Ward No. 1 last spring and believes in him. So trading the pick for future draft capital would make sense. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Arvell Reese, Edge/linebacker, Ohio State. In need of talent on both sides of the ball, Reese is a versatile defender who’s capable of playing edge rusher and off-ball linebacker. His combination of explosiveness, power and physicality are all qualities that give him the potential to be a building block for a defense that already has star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. — Reid
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 16.1%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 76.3%
What was the biggest problem this season?
The entire program. The Giants fired coach Brian Daboll, defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and assistant defensive line coach Bryan Cox at different points this season. The defense has been extremely disappointing given the talent (tied for 30th in yards allowed per play), but that is just part of a bigger problem. The Giants’ leadership, culture and locker room are all sour. How else do you explain winning five of the past 31 games? — Jordan Raanan
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
FPI, which is particularly fond of the Giants this season, favors them this week against the Vikings (though Minnesota is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings). Next week, both the betting line and FPI agree the Giants should be favored against the Raiders. And our model makes the Cowboys-Giants Week 18 game a pick ’em. All of that is a big part of the reason why the Giants aren’t higher on this list. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
8. Similar to what I said about the Titans, except that the Giants could have a new coach and new GM if Joe Schoen is replaced. And if that new leadership has concerns about quarterback Jaxson Dart‘s durability and felt 100 percent convinced on a QB prospect in this class, maybe they make that move. But again, it would be a major surprise from an organization that has reason to believe in last spring’s first-round selection. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Reese. Like the Titans, the Giants have their QB in place with Dart. With edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux entering the final year of his rookie deal in 2026, Reese could turn into an edge rusher, off-ball linebacker hybrid if Thibodeaux is not brought back. Simply taking a best player available approach, he would make a lot of sense as another key addition on a defense with plenty of young talent. — Reid
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Why a full offseason could be key for Jaxson Dart’s growth
Jason McCourty and Jeff Saturday explain how the upcoming offseason will be important for Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart.
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.8%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 77.8%
What was the biggest problem this season?
Everything except special teams. The defense regressed badly under defense-minded coach Aaron Glenn and coordinator Steve Wilks, resulting in Wilks’ firing after 14 games. The offense was weighed down by poor quarterback play, as the Justin Fields experiment was a resounding failure that cost them $30 million in guarantees. The Jets have some players on offense, but neither Fields, Tyrod Taylor nor Brady Cook were able to galvanize the unit. The team is currently ranked 27th in Total QBR (40.6). — Rich Cimini
What lies ahead in the schedule? Are they favored in any remaining games?
The Jets aren’t favored at the Saints, against the Patriots and at the Bills to close out the season. The Saints are playing well enough that they probably will be able to take care of the Jets, so the big risk comes in Week 18 if the Bills have already lost the AFC East and don’t have much to play for. — Walder
On a scale of 1-10, how likely is it they would trade the pick?
1. The Jets are a complete blank slate at QB moving forward. They don’t have any major cap issues connected with Fields or Aaron Rodgers anymore. They need a star at QB and would be unwise to pass up a chance to draft one with the top pick. — Graziano
Who is the best prospect fit right now for them at No. 1?
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon. With five first-round picks over the next two seasons, the Jets have the most draft capital of any of the QB-needy teams. They’d love to keep that future capital to build around Moore after the Fields signing did not work out. Moore’s poise and ball placement project well in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand’s system given his potential as a true distributor. — Reid